Shanghai copper's rally is limited, and upward pressure remains

Externally, London copper futures fell today, with May likely to record a decline of more than 7%, the biggest monthly decline since November last year, as rising expectations of U.
S.
interest rate hikes pushed the dollar back up
.
Previously, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said that if the economy accelerates as expected and continues to create jobs, the Fed should raise interest rates "in the next few months", and Yellen's speech supported expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates in June or July
.
The comments boosted the dollar's gains against other major currencies, with a stronger dollar making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive
for holders of other currencies.
The London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper was last quoted at $
4,680 a tonne.
Copper hit a two-week high of $4,727 a tonne on Friday, before the market was closed on Monday for the holiday
.

3.
Overview of the domestic copper market

On the macro front, copper prices have fallen one after another since this month, and the culprit is the soaring dollar index
.
Due to hawkish comments from Fed officials, market expectations of the Fed's interest rate hike in the near future have become more and more intense, business risk aversion has been rising, the dollar index has been soaring, and the copper market is under obvious pressure
.
In addition, China's economy is still facing downward pressure, copper market demand prospects are not good, market positive factors are poor, it is expected that if there is no major news in the short-term copper market, copper prices will continue to maintain a volatile market
.

In terms of the market, today's Shanghai electrolytic copper spot reported a premium of 30 yuan / ton - 60 yuan / ton, flat water copper trading price of 35760 yuan / ton - 35840 yuan / ton, and premium copper trading price of 35780 yuan / ton - 35860 yuan / ton
.
Shanghai copper rose slightly at a low level, and large traders took the lead in relaxing the premium in early trading, and shipped for cash, traders were not active in buying, and there was little downstream participation
.
After 10 o'clock, the market began to rise, more and more holders took the initiative to reduce the premium for cash, the supply increased and the premium declined, but limited to the restrictions of funds and settlement at the end of the month, there were few responders, and the transaction was weak
.
Today is completely characterized by the end of the month, and the market is waiting for the recovery of trading activity after entering June, but the premium may not rise again
.

4.
Copper closing situation

Today, after the opening of Shanghai copper, crude oil volatility is strong, the dollar weakened, superimposed A shares opened higher today, Shanghai copper 1608 contract shock raised to 35990 yuan / ton, crude oil diving in the afternoon, the dollar rebounded, copper prices directly fell to give up most of the gains
.
The total position of copper in Shanghai increased by 4,398 lots to 770,000 lots, with a total transaction volume of 410,000 lots
.
Today's Shanghai copper main force rushed back down, the 20-day line above the bears are dense, and continue to test the upper pressure
in the evening.