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On Tuesday, the main monthly 2303 contract of Shanghai copper ran strongly, and the intraday rally was firm, opening at 66370 yuan / ton, and closing at 66590 yuan / ton, up 950 yuan / ton, or 1.
45%.
The dollar continued to fall to a new low in more than seven months, boosting market sentiment, coupled with China's reopening of borders, the renminbi exchange rate rose above 6.
8, and the center of gravity of Shanghai copper continued to attack
.
In terms of spot, on January 10, the trading price of CCMN Yangtze River spot 1# copper was 66590-66630 yuan / ton, with an average price of 66610 yuan, up 300 yuan / ton; The premium was reported at 100 to 140 yuan / ton, and the average price was 120 yuan, up 10 yuan / ton
.
In the spot market, it is difficult for holders to ship, the downstream receiving sentiment is sluggish, the cautious wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, and the overall trading lacks sustainability
.
On the supply side, Chile, Peru and First Quantum are all facing multi-factor disruption, and future production disruptions may continue to exceed expectations; However, concentrate supply is still loose and does not affect refinery production
for the time being.
Although spot TC has declined, it remains relatively high overall
.
However, global copper inventories remain low, which still supports copper prices
.
Domestic refined copper production is less than expected, superimposed on the festive atmosphere, most enterprises have chosen to take a holiday, production activities are blocked, and production capacity release is limited
.
In terms of demand, with the approach of the Spring Festival, the copper market is filled with a dull atmosphere, downstream consumption is sluggish, some processing enterprises have entered the holiday stage, and the receivers are afraid of heights and wait and see, cautious entry
.
In addition, China has recently provided a number of policy support for real estate and has a large strength, and the real estate sector has optimistic expectations to boost copper consumption
.
However, at present, the signs of off-season consumption characteristics are obvious, and the demand side remains weak, which is expected to continue to limit price performance
.
Overall, copper prices have continued to rise in recent days, mainly due to the weakening of the US dollar and the good macro expectations
.
Coupled with China's reopening of borders, it has raised global hopes for a recovery in Chinese demand, which in turn has strengthened bullish sentiment and boosted copper prices
.
However, at present, the demand side remains weak, and the slow accumulation of Shanghai copper inventories limits the space for copper prices to rebound, and copper prices fluctuate, focusing on the 65,000 to 60,008 shock range
.
