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On Friday, the main contract of Shanghai copper 1711 fluctuated in a narrow range around 50380 yuan / ton, trading at 50620-50170 yuan / ton intraday, and closing at 50380 yuan / ton at the end of the day, unchanged from the previous day, volatility slowed down significantly, still close to a one-month low
.
In terms of term structure, the copper market maintained a positive arrangement of near low and far high, and the positive price difference between the Shanghai copper 1710 contract and the 1711 contract remained at 50 yuan / ton, indicating that the forward contract was more
willing to fall.
In the external market, the Asian market London copper rebounded weakly, around 6500 US dollars / ton around a narrow range, of which the 3-month London copper traded at 6541-6486 US dollars / ton, slightly down 0.
02% to 6503 US dollars / ton, hitting a low since August 18 this year, the performance slightly resisted the decline in Shanghai copper
.
In terms of positions, on September 13, the position of London copper was 360,000 lots, an increase of 1,284 hands per day, which was an increase of seven consecutive trading days (a cumulative increase of 13,878 hands).
On the macro front, the Asian dollar index fluctuated weakly and continued to trade around 92 as the market became risk-averse to North
Korea's missile test.
In addition, data from the National Development and Reform Commission showed that electricity consumption increased by 6.
4% year-on-year in August and 9.
9% year-on-year in July, further slowing down, continuing to cause market concerns about
China's economic growth.
In terms of industries, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that ten non-ferrous metals were 4.
42 million tons in August, down 2.
2%.
In terms of the market, on September 15, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot traded at 60 yuan / ton - 140 yuan / ton for the monthly contract, and the trading price of flat water copper was 50250-50450 yuan / ton
.
The price difference in the morning market is still in the range of 100-130 yuan, the market quotation is disordered, some of the quotations for the month remain stable at 100-130 yuan / ton, and the quotation of 1710 contracts is 10-30 yuan / ton, traders receive more goods, and the transaction is active
.
Later, with the increase of volatility in the futures, the market quotation has almost fully shifted to the 1710 contract, and the quotation is stable at 20-50 yuan / ton
of 1710 liters of water.
The spread narrowed rapidly in the next month, once the spread between the two contracts has been flattened, and even briefly inverted, the contract quotation of the month has also dropped sharply, the market inquiry atmosphere is active, and the proportion of trade speculators entering the market has once again become the main force, mostly relying on
the spot premium after the month change.
During the day, the Shanghai copper 1711 contract weakly oscillated to 50380 yuan / ton, continuing to pay attention to whether the support of London copper of 6500 US dollars / ton is effective, while being wary of the downside risk
caused by the continuous increase in London copper inventory.
In operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai copper 1711 contract turn from short to oscillating, which can be sold high and low in the range of 50,000-50,600 yuan, with a stop loss of 450 yuan / ton
each.
