Shanghai copper's main force fluctuates in a narrow range, and most of the market is still cautious

Industry: London, May 20 - The International Copper Research Group (ICSG) said on Monday that in the first two months of this year, global mine copper production declined, while refined copper demand remained stable
.
Preliminary data released by ICSG in its monthly report showed that global mine copper production fell 1.
8%
year-on-year in January-February.
Chile and Indonesia, the two largest copper-producing countries, saw significant declines, with Indonesia's copper concentrate production plummeting 50%
year-on-year.
Global refined copper production remained unchanged from January to February, with China's increase offset by a 15% reduction in Chile
.
Chilean environmental regulations forced smelters to suspend production
.

In terms of the market, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot contract reported a premium of 40 ~ 120 yuan / ton, a flat water copper transaction price of 47720 yuan / ton ~ 47820 yuan / ton, and a premium copper trading price of 47770 yuan / ton ~ 47880 yuan / ton
.
Shanghai copper continued the trend of the previous day and continued to sort
out along the line of 47,700 yuan / ton.
Holders of the price to raise the water willingness to continue fermentation, the morning flat water copper from the premium 40 yuan / ton reported, good copper premium 100 yuan / ton, early morning traders still have the willingness to receive goods, can be pressed to good copper premium 90 yuan / ton, but flat water copper most of the unwilling to ship at a low price, the market ushered in a wave of positive trading, so the holder continued to follow the trend to raise the quotation, flat water copper quotation to premium 50 ~ 60 yuan / ton, good copper quotation premium 110 ~ 120 yuan / ton, the high premium makes the market initiative to buy inhibited, However, holders were reluctant to lower their quotations, and the market once again showed a stalemate pattern
.
Wet copper continued to narrow the quotation to a discount of 40 ~ 20 yuan / ton, although the downstream inquiry is positive, but it is difficult to have room for price reduction, so that downstream buying interest has also been suppressed
.
Spot inventory performance is reduced, some traders receive and deliver long orders, so the trade atmosphere is more active, spot premium is difficult to fall back in the short term, but in addition to long-term order trading, most of the market is still cautious, after the premium is high, trade follows the trend gradually tends to be cautious
.

In terms of stocks, -5566; LME copper stocks were 188,725 tonnes on May 20, down 1,825 tonnes
from the previous session.
As of May 17, 2019, copper cathode stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 187,963 tons, down 6,245 tons
from the previous week.
From a seasonal perspective, current inventories remain low compared to the last five years
.

The main 1907 contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated in a narrow range during the day, and short-term market sentiment was still guided
by Sino-US trade relations.
In the spot market, although the downstream inquiry is active, it is difficult to have room for price reduction, which has also suppressed downstream buying
.
Spot inventory performance is reduced, some traders receive and deliver long orders, so the trade atmosphere is more active, spot premium is difficult to fall back in the short term, but in addition to long-term order trading, most of the market is still cautious, after the premium is high, trade follows the trend gradually tends to be cautious
.
In terms of operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai copper 1907 contract can consider taking the opportunity around 47,500 yuan / ton in the short term, and the stop loss refers to 47,000 yuan / ton
.