Shanghai copper volatility strengthens in the short term is still in the shock range

On the industry front, China's refined copper (electrolytic copper) production in January-February rose 6.
3 percent from a year earlier to 1.
34 million mt
, data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics on Friday.
Daily refined copper production in January-February was calculated to be about 22,712 tonnes, down 16.
1%
from 27,065 tonnes in December.
Due to the Lunar New Year holiday, DSEC usually does not publish separate data
for January and February.

In terms of the market, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot contract reported a premium of 820 yuan / ton - 1050 yuan / ton, flat water copper trading price of 49980 yuan / ton - 50120 yuan / ton, and a premium copper trading price of 50080 yuan / ton - 50220 yuan / ton
.
After the sharp decline on Friday, Shanghai copper stabilized within the day and showed signs
of recovery along the 49,000 yuan line 。 The market for the space of 3% tax reduction for the 1904 contract quotation comprehensive sharp premium, the tax difference of about 1000 yuan / ton space makes the holder quotation premium 950-1100 yuan / ton, the holder is reluctant to sell the top price, there are few responders, the holder can only gradually reduce the premium quotation, the quotation is reduced to the premium 950-1000 yuan / ton, and gradually appear passive receiving state, until the quotation premium 820-920 yuan / ton, the transaction is slightly improved, wet copper buying performance is weak, the quotation is 800 yuan / t / Tons around the drop of self-liter water 700 yuan / ton
.
Due to the lack of actual buying volume support for downstream consumption, intraday trading was sluggish, and market buying was weak
.
However, before April 1, holders will still hold firm quotations, the premium pattern will still be guided by the space of tax differentials, and some downstream enterprises that have just needed and have not completed this month's long-term order delivery may still passively accept
after they have no choice but to stop and see.

In terms of stocks, LME copper stocks stood at 186,425 tonnes on March 15, up 41,800 tonnes
from the previous session.
As of March 15, 2019, copper cathode stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange stood at 264,601 tonnes, an increase of 28,432 tonnes
from the previous week.
From a seasonal perspective, current inventories remain at an average
level compared to the last five years.

Shanghai copper volatility strengthened during the day, driven by the decline in the US dollar index and the impact of the recent rise in crude oil prices; However, it should be noted that the recent surge in copper inventories in London and Shanghai may inhibit
the strong performance of the current copper price.
In the spot market, due to the lack of actual buying volume support for downstream consumption, the transaction is sluggish, and the market buying is weak
.
However, before April 1, holders will still hold firm quotations, the premium pattern will still be guided by the space of tax differentials, and some downstream enterprises that have just needed and have not completed this month's long-term order delivery may still passively accept
after they have no choice but to stop and see.
On the technical side, the main 1905 contract of copper is still in the volatility range, the performance of the MACD indicator tends to be stable, and it is recommended to maintain a volatile view
in the short term.