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Today's Shanghai copper main contract 1707 oscillation strengthened, closing up to 45430 yuan / ton, up 1.
11% on a daily basis, close to the intraday high of 45560 yuan / ton, sharply cutting Friday's
decline.
In terms of term structure, the copper market maintained a positive arrangement of near low and far high, and the positive price difference between the Shanghai copper 1706 contract and the 1707 contract fell to 0 yuan / ton
.
External trend: Asian London copper oscillation higher, of which the 3-month London copper operating range of 5609-5560 US dollars / ton, now slightly up 0.
53% to 5597 US dollars / ton, so that London copper from last week's low of 5462 US dollars / ton rebounded 2.
45%.
In terms of positions, on May 11, the position of London copper was 340,000 lots, down 960 lots per day, and last week, Lun copper increased its position and fell, indicating that the confidence of bulls to do long is still very insufficient
.
Macro: The Asian dollar index extended Friday's decline, falling to around
99.
07.
In addition, the added value of industries above designated size in the country from January to April this year increased by 6.
7% year-on-year, down 0.
1% from January to March, the highest since 2015, but worse than expected
.
However, at the same time, China's real estate development investment from January to April was 2,773.
2 billion yuan, a nominal increase of 9.
3% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.
2% higher than that from January to March, indicating that the enthusiasm for real estate development is still high
.
In the copper sector, Chile's state-owned copper industry committee showed that Chile's copper production fell 14.
6% in the first quarter, due to the impact of the world's largest copper mine strike
.
In terms of market: on May 15, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot contract reported a premium of 20 yuan / ton - 90 yuan / ton, flat water copper trading price of 45150-45270 yuan / ton, and premium copper trading price of 45170 yuan / ton - 45300 yuan / ton
。 Today is the last trading day of the 1705 contract of the month, the basis of the early interval month has always remained at 80-100 yuan / ton, holders generally quoted on the 1706 next month contract, the morning flat water - premium 20 yuan / ton, helpless market few responders, coupled with the next month price difference then gradually narrowed to about 60 yuan / ton, holders generally began to lower the quotation in order to seek transactions
.
Holders have a strong willingness to exchange cash before the month change, speculators choose the opportunity to enter the market, buy cash and sell the period, downstream on demand, wait for the change of month to enter the market, the transaction is mainly
middlemen.
The Shanghai copper 1707 contract rebounded to 45,430 yuan / ton during the day, as the market's concerns about its rising supply pressure eased, and the recent China Belt and Road Summit Forum held high hopes to improve investor confidence, but it is necessary to pay attention to whether there are key policies introduced at the summit in the later stage, otherwise the rally is unsustainable
.
It is recommended that the Shanghai copper 1707 contract can be backed by 46,000 yuan below the sky, the entry reference is around 45,500 yuan, and the target is around
44,800 yuan.
