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Today's Shanghai copper main contract 1703 contract oscillation slightly rose, closing at 45810 yuan / ton, up 0.
42% per day, for three consecutive days, compared with this round of pullback low of 43490 yuan / ton up 5.
33%, but Shanghai copper has not effectively broken through the upper average suppression, rebound resistance focus on 46500 yuan / ton
.
In terms of term structure, the copper market maintained a positive arrangement of near low and far high, and the positive price difference between the Shanghai copper 1701 contract and the 1702 contract remained at 80 yuan / ton, indicating that the willingness of forward contracts to rise has risen
.
Externally: Ashi Lun copper rebounded, with 3-month London copper rising 0.
72% to $5,555/mt, and the closing price was still close to the low set on November 18 this year
.
In terms of positions, on December 23, the position of London copper was 360,000 lots, a daily decrease of 1,752 lots, a decrease of seven consecutive days, indicating that long and short actively reduced positions and left the market, and the sentiment of the copper market declined
.
Macro: The Asian dollar index fell under pressure to around 102.
83, showing a weak rebound from the high, and the US existing home sales index fell 2.
5% m/m to 107.
3 in November, up 0.
5%
expected.
At the same time, U.
S.
crude oil futures stabilized around $53.
84 per barrel, maintaining the gains recorded at the beginning of the week
.
In terms of industry, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency issued a final rule that from April 1, financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase, will no longer be allowed to get involved in the physical business
of electrolytic copper, aluminum profiles and other metals.
In terms of market: on December 29, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot reported a discount of 250 yuan / ton - 180 yuan / ton for the current month's contract, and the transaction price of flat water copper was 44980-45150 yuan / ton
.
At the end of the year, the market basically entered a state of rest, some enterprises shipped a small amount, the brand price difference was obvious, the quotation was more disordered, the supply was acceptable, the downstream continued sporadic rigid need to enter the market, so that some suppliers' quotations were relatively firm, the flat water copper discount was significantly narrower than yesterday, the willingness of holders to exchange cash became weaker, and the transaction was quiet
.
The Shanghai copper 1703 contract rebounded to 45810 yuan / ton during the day, which performed better than other base metals, indicating that its intrinsic willingness to rise is strong
.
However, because Shanghai copper has not effectively broken through the upper moving average suppression, and there is a lack of market attention in the short term, copper market operations still need to be cautious
.
It is recommended that the Shanghai copper 1702 contract can be sold high and low between 45300-46800 yuan, and the stop loss is 500 yuan / ton
each.