Shanghai copper volatility is strong The current market is short, long and short

On the macro front, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is still scorching, and market risk aversion still exists, but Russia agrees that Europe will use the euro to buy natural gas, the euro has appreciated, and the dollar has fallen under pressure; In addition, China's weaker manufacturing PMI data for March hit optimistic expectations
of the economic outlook.

Fundamentals, upstream copper mine supply showed a growth trend, copper mine supply improved compared with the previous period, smelter raw material supply is basically sufficient; At present, refinery scheduling enthusiasm is high, refined copper production is expected to remain high, but high operating rate will also limit the future market increment
.

Recently, the import and export window has opened slightly, overseas inventories have rebounded significantly, while domestic inventories have shown a clear downward trend, but the rise in copper prices has weakened the willingness to purchase downstream, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate
in range.
Looking ahead to next week, copper prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and economic optimism will weaken, but domestic inventories will deteriorate significantly
.

At present, copper is in the traditional destocking cycle, due to the downward shift of the overall inventory center of the epidemic in recent years, which has driven the recent spread of strong market sentiment
.
However, it is worth noting that the current European and domestic manufacturing PMI in March showed signs of decline, CPI and PPI high scissor difference under the industrial production profit hindered, the second half of the macro economy may be difficult to support stronger metal power, with the recent end of the end of copper prices or more bearish signs
.