Shanghai copper volatility is strong, and the risk of downward adjustment in the later period still exists

In terms of external trading, Asian market London copper gap opened high, of which 3-month London copper traded at 6920-6850 US dollars / ton, up 0.
79% to 6899 US dollars / ton, the highest intraday touch 6920 US dollars / ton, the daily closing price hit a three-year high
.
In terms of positions, on August 31, the position of London copper was 339,000 lots, an increase of 390 lots per day, but the recent rise rate of London copper at a high level has slowed down, and the position increases and decreases, showing that long and short operations are cautious, and it is still necessary to be vigilant against the risk
of high pullback.

On the macro front, the Asian dollar index fell under pressure and is now trading around
92.
6.
Data released on Friday showed that the US non-farm payrolls increased by 156,000 after the quarterly adjustment in August, worse than expected an increase of 180,000, and an increase of 189,000 after July revision, which lowered the Fed's September interest rate hike expectations
.
In terms of industries, as of the week of August 29 this year, the long position of the copper CFTC speculative fund increased by 1647, the short fell by 1159, and the net position of speculation was a net long of 43652 lots, an increase of 2806 from last week, but maintained a net long status for the 44th consecutive week, indicating that speculative funds are still actively bullish in the short and medium term
.

In terms of the market, on September 4, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot reported a discount of 10 yuan / ton - 30 yuan / ton for the monthly contract, and the transaction price of flat water copper was 52920-53100 yuan / ton
.
The price spread of copper in Shanghai remained stable at around 100 yuan, and the premium was hindered
.
The quotation of good copper was flat at about 20 yuan / ton of premium, and the flat water copper was flat near flat water, and the high-price transaction was suppressed, and some low-end flat water copper actively reduced to a discount of 10 yuan / ton to facilitate the transaction
.
It is difficult to improve the supply of copper in the short term, so the quotation of the holders is still firm, the willingness to raise water is strong, although the downstream has recognized the upward trend, but it is still hesitant to follow the rise, and the market is difficult to get rid of the deadlock pattern of supply and demand
.

The Shanghai copper 1711 contract oscillated to 53250 yuan / ton during the day, accompanied by the increase in position, indicating that the willingness of funds to push up is strong
.
However, in view of the fact that copper prices have not fallen decently after continuing to rise, and black varieties have fallen significantly from their highs during the day, or dragged down the bullish atmosphere
in the non-ferrous metals market.
In terms of operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai copper 1711 contract maintain the oscillation idea, which can be sold high and low in the range of 53500-52500 yuan, and the stop loss is 500 yuan / ton
each.