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On Friday, Shanghai copper fluctuated higher during the day, closing up slightly by 0.
49%, and the center of gravity was difficult to move
up significantly.
The US dollar index is weak and volatile, and domestic favorable policies are frequent, but copper prices do not respond much, and next year's long-term processing fee will increase significantly compared with this year, and the future refined copper production is expected to
increase.
On the macro front, the Fed minutes show that most officials support slowing down the pace of interest rate hikes, and the dollar index has fallen significantly, continuing its weak operating posture, and there is little pressure on the macro surface
.
For the domestic side, the recent macro good news is frequent, the state will often raise the RRR reduction, the head real estate enterprises financial support, etc.
, but the market reflects little
.
On the news front, a source familiar with the negotiations said miner Freeport McMulan has finalized an agreement with some smelters in Asia to set the 2023 copper concentrate processing refining fee (TC/RCs) at $88 per ton and 8.
8 cents
per pound.
This is much higher than last year's $65/mt and 6.
5 cents/lb, suggesting that supply and demand at the mine end tend to be looser
.
Copper concentrate supply is abundant, port inventories remain high, copper concentrate spot TC has risen, long-term single processing fees in 2023 have risen sharply year-on-year, and smelter profits continue to expand
.
Domestic smelting enterprises increased the operating rate, electrolytic copper production increased in December, and part of the smelting capacity was put into operation
.
In terms of the market, Shanghai Metal Network 1# electrolytic copper quotation 65550-65730 yuan / ton, the average price of 65640 yuan / ton, up 150 yuan / ton from the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper 2212 contract up 390-430 yuan / ton
.
The spot market transaction is general, and the premium is up 20 yuan / ton
from the previous day.
During the intensive period in the morning, the flat water copper rose about 390 yuan, and the good copper rose about 400 yuan, and the transaction was acceptable, and the poor copper and wet copper were rare
.
As of the close, the network reported a liter of copper up 400 liters of 430 yuan / ton, flat water copper reported a liter of 390-liters of 400 yuan / ton, and a difference copper reported a liter of 250-liters of 350 yuan / ton
.
From a fundamental point of view, the warehouse receipts in the previous period were obviously destocked, and the low inventory supported Shanghai copper
.
Supply-side disruptions continued, and Chilean copper miners rejected BHP's offer or went on strike, which was positive for copper prices
.
At present, the main support point of copper prices is the weak operation of the US dollar index, but there is strong support at the bottom of the US index, beware of the risk
of subsequent copper prices rushing down.
It is expected that short-term copper prices will maintain a volatile pattern, and the main range refers to 64500-65500
.
