Shanghai copper trend is weak Fundamentals generally lack strong support

On the macro front, China's industrial profits increased in 2020, and production and operation continued to recover steadily.
US GDP contracted by 3.
5% in 2020, the largest decline since the end of World War II, and GDP grew by 4% in the fourth quarter, but it clearly stalled at the end of the quarter; According to the head of the European Central Bank, judging by economic data for the fourth quarter of 2020, the recovery of the eurozone economy has been delayed
.
In addition, the massive US fiscal stimulus program has been hampered, the outlook is uncertain, and market risk sentiment has decreased
.

In terms of the market, in the week of January 29, the center of gravity of domestic spot copper prices shifted
.
The average price of copper in Yangtze River nonferrous metal network 1# was 58540 yuan / ton, down 156 yuan / ton per day, and down 1.
32% on the weekly line; The average price of the previous week was 58,974 yuan / ton, down 434 yuan / ton compared with last week, down 0.
74%
from the previous week.

In terms of stocks, London copper stocks continued their downward trend last week, with a cumulative decrease of 13,150 metric tons to 74,575 metric tons, a cumulative decrease of 14.
99%.

Shanghai copper stocks continued to deteriorate last week, falling by 683 tons to 66,565 tons, a decrease of 1.
02%, and a cumulative decline of 23.
21%
in the past four weeks.

In terms of news, the impact of the epidemic in South America continues, and Peru will impose new lockdowns, although key industries such as mining will continue to operate
.
The pace of new mine production may slow down in the short term, with limited copper mine increments in the first half of the year, and the Chilean copper council Cochico predicting a 70,000 tonnes reduction in global copper supply in 2021, and the risk of a second wave of the pandemic remains
for Peru and Chile.

Overall, China's economy maintained a strong growth momentum, and the Ministry of Commerce said it would boost traditional consumption
.
Copper concentrate processing fee TC continues to be low, short-term copper mine supply is still tight, the world's major exchange inventories are at a low level, but scrap copper imports have increased, recent consumption seasonally weakened, downstream stocking willingness to decrease, processing enterprises began to gradually take a holiday, the overall lack of strong support in fundamentals, it is expected that short-term copper price volatility is weak
.