Shanghai copper trend is strong, the late rise has expanded

In terms of the market, today's domestic spot copper prices rose, Yangtze River non-ferrous metal network 1# copper price was reported at 43010 yuan / ton, up 160 yuan, 120-180 liters; Guangdong spot 1# copper price was reported at 43100 yuan / ton, up 160 yuan; Yangtze River spot 1# copper price 43070 yuan / ton, up 140 yuan, premium 190-liter 210; Shanghai spot 1# copper price was 43,015 yuan / ton, up 190 yuan
.
Downstream consumption is just demand-based, the premium is slightly firm, and traders are still seeking low-price transactions
.
A slow recovery in Chinese factory activity, a recovery in demand for base metals, an increase in copper imports in April, and an unexpected rise in copper exports supported prices
.

Industry News:

1.
A Freeport-McMoRan spokesperson said it plans to reassess operations at the State copper mine, which was temporarily closed
due to coronavirus.

2.
As of May 2, copper stocks in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone were about 248,300 tons, down 43,600 tons from the previous week and the largest weekly decline since the end of February
.

3.
In the first quarter of 2020, the Veliki Krivelj flotation plant in Serbia, a subsidiary of Zijinbol Copper Mine, produced a total of 5,828 tons of copper concentrate, compared with 5,064 tons in the same period last year, an increase of 15%
year-on-year.
In the first quarter of 2020, the flotation plant processed a total of 2.
519 million tonnes of copper ore, compared to 2.
059 million tonnes
in the same period last year.
At present, the average daily ore processing capacity of this flotation plant can reach 2.
8-29,000 tons
.
The flotation plant is part of the Veiliki Krivelj open-pit mine with ore reserves of approximately 560.
5 million tonnes (0.
33% copper).

Fundamental changes: 1) The refined copper inventory in the middle of the section did not change much, and the overall maintenance was around 300,000 tons, the seasonal recovery of downstream demand and the replacement consumption of waste refined still existed, and the destocking process continued; 2) Copper concentrate TC continues to decline to around $55, and the disturbance at the mine end may be reflected in the production of refined copper in May, but at present, the inflection point of the overseas epidemic has appeared, and the state of emergency has been lifted in South America, and the supply disturbance of copper concentrate is expected to be only a short-term phenomenon
.

Shanghai copper is expected to remain dominated by strong shocks in the short term, because on the one hand, the current downstream peak season effect is still obvious, and the high-rise water stack strengthens destocking, giving upward momentum, but on the other hand, the market's long-term fundamental expectations are generally weak, and the price upward is not smooth
.
Under the background of strong reality vs weak expectations, although there is still momentum for short-term non-ferrous upward growth, the space is limited, and the upward movement in May can gradually decline, and more attention should be paid to protecting profits
.