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On Thursday, the main 2010 contract of Shanghai copper fell and fluctuated, with the highest 51840 yuan / ton in the day, the lowest 51300 yuan / ton, and the closing price of 51330 yuan / ton, down 0.
73% from the previous trading day's closing price; In the external market, LME copper fell and fluctuated, as of 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month London copper was reported at 6681 US dollars / ton, down 1.
63%
on the day.
Market focus: (1) The Fed kept interest rates unchanged and hinted at keeping interest rates low until 2023, although the economy is expected to contract by 3.
7% this year, stronger than the 6.
5%
contraction forecast in June.
(2) The U.
S.
chief of staff said the White House was open to a new $1.
52 trillion stimulus package, and the bipartisan consensus in the United States was expected to heat up
.
(3) China's refined copper output in August was 894,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.
7%, January-August output increased by 4.
9% year-on-year to 6.
527 million tons; August copper output was 1.
949 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.
1%; Production from January to August increased by 12.
2% y/y to 13.
762 million tons
.
Spot analysis: On September 17, SMM spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation was 51400-51520 yuan / ton, the average price was 51460 yuan / ton, down 430 yuan / ton
per day.
Changjiang Nonferrous Metal reported that middlemen lack room to operate, downstream consumption is weak, and transactions remain sluggish
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 73,370 tons on Thursday, a daily decrease of 1,101 tons; On 16 September, LME copper stocks stood at 78,900 tonnes, up 350 tonnes
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2010 contracts were 76163 lots, minus 1394 lots per day, short positions were 65386 lots, daily minus 3081 lots, net long positions were 10777 lots, daily increase of 1687 lots, long and short were reduced, net long and long increased
.
The Fed highlighted its previous dovish stance, but also said that the US economy recovered faster than expected, and the dawn of a new stimulus package was reached, and the dollar index rebounded
sharply.
At the same time, upstream copper mine supply is gradually recovering, and China's smelting output is gradually increasing, but copper processing fees TC is still at a low level, making smelting costs still high
.
London copper inventories have rebounded sharply, inventory dematerialization has shown signs of slowdown, coupled with the lack of improvement in domestic market demand, copper production in August increased by a limited month-on-month increase, the peak season is not strong phenomenon, Shanghai copper inventories maintain an accumulation trend, copper prices still lack upward momentum
.
Technically, the mainstream short reduction of the Shanghai copper 2010 contract is even greater, touching the lower edge of the operating range, and it is expected to fluctuate
in a wide short-term range.
