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The main Shanghai copper futures contract rose on Wednesday night and gradually fell during yesterday's session, finally closing up 1.
29% to 71,440 yuan a tonne
.
U.
S.
stocks and crude oil turned down yesterday night, market risk appetite fell, and copper prices stepped back to 71,500
.
The main reason for the strength of copper prices is closely related to macro and market sentiment turning, and the correlation with its own fundamentals is low
.
On the macro front, the year-on-year growth rate of PPI in the United States continued to reach a new high in December, but the growth rate was slightly lower than market expectations, indicating that the sharp rise in prices has temporarily slowed
.
Fed Governor Brainard, who was nominated as vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, stressed at the hearing on the nomination that reducing inflation is the Fed's top priority, saying that the Fed will use "powerful" tools to reduce inflation, of which interest rates are the main tool, and is open to raising interest rates in March, believing that the Fed may raise interest rates
as early as March to ensure that the pressure on high prices does not get out of control.
Brainard, previously seen as one of the most dovish Fed officials, said her hearing remarks an important shift
in the stance of an influential dovish member of the Fed.
From a fundamental point of view, the daily market rose again and broke through 72,000 yuan / ton, affecting downstream buying, and the basis changed from Contango structure to Back structure in the next month, which also made the quotation go all the way down, and Shanghai copper rose to the bottom of the water; Guangdong electrolytic copper stocks have fallen for three consecutive days and reached a new low, but the decline has slowed
down from the previous day.
In terms of inventory, the LME and SHFE were slightly destocked
.
Affected by the record low inventory and few shippers, the market quotation was relatively firm, and the South China copper premium rose
slightly.
Overall, in the case of high inflation, copper prices still maintain the judgment
of volatility for the time being.
Recent remarks about the Fed's hawks have come out frequently, and changes in inflation expectations have a greater impact; In the spot market, affected by the weakness of downstream buying, the actual premium continued to decline in the upcoming month, and the Shanghai copper support declined
.
The risk of short-term downward revision increases, and the main support focuses on 70800
.
