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Today's Shanghai copper main contract 1703 contract bottomed out, closing at 45520 yuan / ton, up 1.
58% from the intraday low of 44810 yuan / ton, at present, Shanghai copper has not effectively broken through the upper moving average suppression, rebound resistance focus on 46500 yuan / ton
.
In terms of term structure, the copper market maintained a positive arrangement of near low and far high, and the positive price difference between the Shanghai copper 1702 contract and the 1703 contract remained at 160 yuan / ton, indicating that the forward contract has a strong
willingness to resist decline.
Externally: Asian Lun copper bottomed out, indicating that its willingness to fall has weakened, and the support of the $5500 / ton line is still effective, of which the 3-month London copper edged up 0.
8% to $5525 / ton, up 1.
19% from the intraday low of $5450 / ton, and has not yet fallen below the oscillation finishing platform
for more than a week.
In terms of positions, on December 30, the position of London copper was 352,000 lots, a daily decrease of 2,964 lots, a ten-day reduction, indicating that long and short positions actively reduced their positions and left the market, and the sentiment of the copper market declined
.
Macro: The Asian dollar index edged down to around 103.
18, close to the year's high of 103.
92
.
In addition, the US ISM manufacturing PMI index in December was 54.
7, the fastest increase in two years, higher than the expected 53.
6 and the previous reading of 53.
2, indicating a stabilization of output and the fastest increase in orders since August 2009
.
In the sub-indicators, export orders hit the fastest since May 2014; The new orders index was 60.
2, the highest
since November 2014.
In terms of industry, the annual production of copper metal in Xinjiang Ashel Copper Mine exceeded 40,000 tons in 2016, a year-on-year increase of 14%, a record high
since the establishment of the mine.
In terms of market: on January 4, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot traded at a discount of 150 yuan / ton - 70 yuan / ton for the monthly contract, and the transaction price of flat water copper was 44530-44900 yuan / ton
.
Copper prices are falling to attract some speculators to enter the market operation, the proportion of premium copper inventory is relatively low, the transaction is active, coupled with some traders have replenishment demand, flat water copper benefit discount gradually narrowed, especially after the copper price low rebounded, the willingness of holders to raise the price increased, but wet copper is still lacking, downstream on-demand receiving is the mainstay, there are no obvious signs of stocking before the Spring Festival, the market transaction is dominated
by middlemen replenishment.
The Shanghai copper 1703 contract bottomed out and rebounded to 45520 yuan / ton, indicating that there is strong support below, due to the strong performance of China's manufacturing PMI in December, copper market operation still needs to be cautious
.
It is recommended that the Shanghai copper 1703 contract can be sold high and low between 45000-46500 yuan, and the stop loss is 500 yuan / ton
each.
