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Recently, the Shanghai copper high slipped into a volatile market
.
The global epidemic control is acceptable, inflation expectations have driven the high valuation of copper prices, although the loose monetary policy and infrastructure investment in the United States have continued, but the market speculation has dissipated, the price has further moved closer to the fundamentals, and Shanghai copper has slipped from a high level into consolidation, and the momentum is weak
.
At present, it is approaching the peak season of traditional copper demand in China, and the expected consumption brought by carbon neutrality and green energy under the loose pattern has strong support below, and Shanghai copper maintains its preference outlook
in the medium term.
At the macro level, the number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States recorded 916,000 in March, which was significantly better than expected, and the improvement in the labor market helped to boost the market's risk appetite
.
The Biden administration plans to launch a large-scale infrastructure plan to focus on its demand for non-ferrous metals
.
Long-term U.
S.
Treasury yields hovering around 1.
7% and the dollar index is in a rebound phase, so caution is still needed
.
On the news front, New York Fine Copper rose sharply on Monday, off the one-month low reached last Thursday, and technically maintained a one-month sideways narrow range
.
On the news, Chile closed its borders for a month from the 5th to control the spread of the epidemic, and Bolivia also closed its border with Brazil to prevent and control the epidemic
.
The Chilean government said it would not affect mine operations and would issue licenses
to essential workers.
It is also reported that a mine in Chile has achieved May delivery concentrate processing fees of less than $20.
In addition, last week, Mongolia's Ordovician mines stopped sending mines to China due to the epidemic, declaring force majeure, and Peru also imposed a national lockdown
on Easter.
Overall, the epidemic situation in important mineral countries continues to worsen, and the prolonged lockdown in South America may cause production declines, as well as chaotic and delayed shipments, and raw material tensions are still worsening
.
London inventories rose by 20,000 tonnes last week, reflecting reduced demand in China, some hidden stocks returned to exchanges, and Shanghai copper inventories were still increasing, but last week's sharp narrowing of spot discounts after a cross-month also confirmed good support from low prices
.
Combined with the technical form, copper price support has been repeatedly verified, and strong data and U.
S.
stock trends also verify that macro bullishness continues, but the recovery of domestic downstream demand is still very slow, the spread is still unfavorable to the price to continue to rise, into April is expected to gradually increase demand from the power grid and real estate, and domestic refinery maintenance affects production, prices are expected to gradually fluctuate upward, and get rid of the rest trend
since March.
