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On Thursday, the main 2102 contract of Shanghai copper opened high and fluctuated, with the highest 59,550 yuan / ton during the day, the lowest 58,720 yuan / ton, and the closing price of 59,380 yuan / ton, up 0.
59% from the previous trading day's closing price; In the external market, LME copper rose slightly, as of 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month London copper was reported at $8104 / ton, up 0.
38%
per day.
Market focus: (1) ADP employment in the United States fell by 123,000 in December, the first negative value since April 2020, and is expected to increase by 75,000 compared with an increase of 307,000
in the previous month.
(2) In November 2020, China's copper demand prosperity index was 101.
8, up 0.
6 points from the previous month, higher than the same period of the previous year
.
Spot analysis: On January 7, spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation 59260-59400 yuan / ton, the average price of 59330 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 170 yuan / ton
.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that the wait-and-see mood is strong, the receiving mood is not good, and the downstream consumption is general
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 29,747 tons on Thursday, a daily decrease of 930 tons, a 4-day decline; LME copper stocks were flat at 105425 tonnes on 6 January
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2102 contract were 58642 lots, minus 1721 lots per day, short positions were 65714 lots, daily minus 1849 lots, net short positions were 7072 lots, daily minus 128 lots, long and short were reduced, and net space was reduced
.
Market research and judgment: Shanghai copper 2102 opened high on January 7
.
The risk of the global epidemic continuing to worsen into winter has increased, and the poor performance of ADP data in the United States has weighed on market risk sentiment; However, the dollar index continued to be weak
in anticipation of the US maintaining accommodative monetary policy.
Copper mine protests in South America have increased, copper mine supply disturbances have increased, copper mine processing fees TC have been slightly lowered recently, and copper smelting costs are high; The implementation of the new policy for copper scrap has greatly increased the import volume and widened the price difference of refined waste, and the substitution role will gradually increase; Downstream market demand performance is acceptable, and Shanghai copper inventories remain low, supporting copper prices
.
Technically, the daily moving average of the Shanghai copper 2102 contract is long, focusing on the resistance of the previous high, and it is expected to continue to rise
slightly in the short term.
