Shanghai copper shock rose slightly, short-term downside risks still exist

In the external market, Asia Lun copper fell under pressure, of which the 3-month London copper traded at 6445-6385 US dollars / ton, down slightly by 0.
34%, and continued to pay attention to technical pullback demand
in the short term.
In terms of positions, on August 10, the position of London copper was 349,000 lots, an increase of 406 per day, and the increase in London copper positions fell into a high level in the latest week, indicating that the divergence between long and short has increased, and bears have gradually taken advantage
.

On the macro front, the Asian dollar index rebounded and is now trading around 93.
69, still close to its low since May 2016
.
China's M1 money supply in July was 15.
3% year-on-year, 14% expected, M2 money supply was 9.
2%, a record low, expected 9.
5%, and the data showed that liquidity levels were generally tight
.

In terms of industry, it is reported that Glencore closed its Zambian copper-cobalt mine project on Monday, as power suppliers cut its power supply, because the country's power supplier Copperbelt Energy said that it will continue to provide power to miners only after they agree to pay the 55% increase in electricity prices since April, Glencore's copper production in Zambia accounts for 1/4 of the country's total copper production, which has raised concerns about the possibility of a large-scale copper mine shutdown in Zambia.
Zambia produced 770597 tonnes of copper in 2016, and in June the government expected copper production to rise to 850,000 tonnes in 2017
.

In terms of the market, on August 15, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot contracts reported a premium of 20 yuan / ton - 90 yuan / ton of water premium, and the transaction price of flat water copper was 50030 yuan / ton - 50090 yuan / ton
.
The morning market has a large difference every other month, stable in the range of 200-250 yuan / ton, the market is still quoting the 1708 contract, good copper premium 50 yuan / ton first-line, middlemen take advantage of the large price difference, and the enthusiasm for receiving goods is still good
.
From about 10 o'clock, the basis fluctuates greatly, fluctuating sharply in the width of 160-190 yuan / ton, and the holders have turned to the 1709 contract quotation, good copper discount 120-100 yuan / ton, flat water copper in the discount of about 140 yuan / ton, wet copper discount 200 yuan / ton, the basis is slightly narrowed, speculative attractiveness is reduced, middlemen wait for tomorrow's discount transaction
after the month.
Downstream wants to wait for copper prices to pull back and enter the market
again.
Intraday presents the characteristics of monthly change, there are many quotations, it is difficult to exchange cash, and it is difficult to increase the transaction activity
.

The intraday Shanghai copper 1710 contract oscillation rose slightly to 50,330 yuan / ton, barely located near the 50,000 yuan / ton mark, copper prices still lack key upward momentum in the short term, while China's key economic indicators in July were less than expected, especially the decline in M2 currency growth in July, liquidity tightened, increasing the risk
of copper prices falling.
In terms of operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai copper 1710 contract can be backed by 50800 yuan / ton below the sky, and the entry reference is around 50400 yuan / ton, and the target is 49700 yuan / ton
.