Shanghai copper shock rebound There is still a downside risk in the short term

Externally: Asian market London copper oscillation rose slightly, of which 3-month London copper rose 0.
6% to 5548 US dollars / ton, has not yet risen to the high level of oscillation finishing platform above, short-term decline risk remains
.
In terms of positions, on December 19, the position of London copper was 378,000 lots, a daily decrease of 5,007 lots, a decrease of four consecutive days, and this week's London copper reduced its position declined, indicating that bulls have a strong
willingness to take profits at high prices.

Macro: The Asian dollar index oscillated slightly to around 103.
1, still running
at a high level.
The market is currently focused on the progress of
Italian bank bailouts.
It is reported that the Italian Senate will vote
on the government's banking assistance plan at 19:00 Beijing time on December 21.
The Italian government is currently seeking parliamentary approval for a €20 billion financing plan to stabilize the country's banking sector
.
In terms of industry, China's unwrought copper exports in November were 10,525 tons, hitting a new low in January this year, and China's cumulative exports of unwrought copper from January to November were 399402 tons
.

In terms of market: on December 21, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot traded at a discount of 250-130 yuan / ton for the contract of the month, and the transaction price of flat water copper was 44820-45050 yuan / ton
.
Shanghai copper stopped falling and rebounded, attracting some downstream bargain hunters to buy goods, narrowing the discount range
of copper to a certain extent.
Holders still have the willingness to exchange cash, but subject to the lack of speculative buying at the end of the year, it is difficult to reduce prices, and the number of closing companies is increasing, so the strength of dumping is gradually weakened, and the market is once again in a state
of supply and demand tug-of-war.
It is expected that the light market will continue
at the end of the year.

The intraday Shanghai copper 1702 contract oscillated to 45330 yuan / ton, mainly boosted by technical corrections, but because London copper inventories have risen sharply in the past week, while the US dollar index maintained high operation, increasing the resistance
to copper prices.
It is recommended that the Shanghai copper 1702 contract can be backed by 46,000 yuan below the sky, the entry reference is around 45,500 yuan, and the target is 44,000 yuan
.