Shanghai copper shock pulls up futures prices to update the high level of nearly two months

In terms of spot, the premium at the spot end continues to remain at an extremely high state, holders try to raise prices but lack demand support, and buyers' enthusiasm for receiving goods is more general, although bullish under the active entry into the purchase, seeking replenishment opportunities, but the actual receiver is not very acceptable to the high price, the trading situation is not good, and the overall transaction performance is hesitant
.

On the supply side, overseas Chile is about to launch a referendum on constitutional revision and Minmetals lowered its Peruvian copper mine production estimate, which makes overseas copper mine supply face challenges; The scope of domestic power rationing continues to expand, among which Anhui Tongling copper enterprises indirectly stop production due to power shortages, and their output is damaged; The Chifeng smelter gradually recovered after maintenance, but the output was still low; Guangxi copper smelting enterprises maintenance continued, weekly output affected 02,600 tons, Hubei Daye due to tight power supply copper smelting enterprises intermittent production restrictions, output fell this week by 04,500 tons
.
At the same time, the epidemic in Sanmenxia, local smelter production and railway transportation were not affected, automobile transportation was blocked, and the departmental smelter was overhauled in advance, which also added a fire to the tense atmosphere in the spot market.

However, copper is currently in very low inventory and has been destocked, the current deliverable inventory/current month position ratio of the previous period has hit a new low, and Chile has recently delayed shipments due to wave problems, and the market does not expect much
copper imports.

On the demand side, the domestic power crisis is severe, and the demand side is also affected, among which the operating rate of downstream enterprises is even weaker
.
Although the reduction of LPR combined with real estate-related policies has a certain stabilizing effect on market sentiment, the decline of real estate still has a significant drag on downstream demand, and it is difficult to significantly improve
in the short term.
However, the high temperature side also drove the sales growth of air conditioning retail, adding momentum to demand and not being pessimistic
.
In addition, due to the tight supply of goods, the strong sentiment of the holders of the price is strong, which intensifies the wait-and-see attitude of downstream enterprises, so overall, the enthusiasm of downstream enterprises is relatively limited
.

In terms of stocks, London copper stocks fell last week, with a cumulative decrease of 3,300 tonnes to 120525 tonnes, a decline of 2.
67%.

Shanghai copper inventories rebounded slightly last week, with a cumulative increase of 3,693 tons to 34,898 tons, an increase of 11.
83%
year-on-year.

Comprehensive analysis: Shanghai copper fluctuated last week, up 1.
86% during the week, and the futures price updated the high level of nearly two months
.
The macro atmosphere is generally optimistic but mixed with a little caution, although the dollar remains strong and many Fed officials are vague about raising interest rates, but the market still expects Powell to hint at a slowdown in the pace of interest rate hikes on Friday, and the recovery of US stock indexes supports market risk sentiment
.
Moreover, the domestic stable growth policy and the approaching peak season have brought about
a moderate recovery in consumption.
Confidence was encouraged by the real estate market's renewed stimulus from the New Deal, while copper prices remained volatile
on the back of low inventories and rumors of a run on the back of stocks.