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On Thursday, the main force of Shanghai copper opened low and then fluctuated to the downside
.
At the end of the day, the main 2206 contract of Shanghai copper closed at 72760, down 570, or 0.
78%.
On the macro front, yesterday, after the Fed completed a 50 basis point interest rate hike, market volatility began to appear, the dollar fell back in a short time, once again showed a strong trend, standing back to the 103.
50 line, and the most affected is the US stock market, yesterday the three major stock indexes of the US stock market showed a sharp decline, Nasdaq fell by nearly 5%, which to a certain extent seems to reflect the market's concern
about stagflation after the rate hike.
On the supply side, TC prices continued to rise to $83/ton in April, which showed that there was still a trend of wider supply at the mine end, and also showed that domestic smelting capacity was relatively significantly affected by the epidemic, resulting in TC prices continuing to rise
.
As far as the smelting side is concerned, production is expected to decline
in April as refineries bring forward maintenance to April.
However, with the rise in TC prices and the continued rise in the price of sulfuric acid, a by-product, smelting profits are relatively considerable, so if the epidemic can be relatively effectively controlled in the future, production may recover significantly
.
In terms of demand, before the May Day holiday, it was proposed at the Politburo Work Conference of the Central Committee to increase the intensity of macro policy regulation, solidly stabilize the economy, strive to achieve the expected goals of economic and social development for the whole year, and maintain economic operation in a reasonable zone
.
This has a certain boost
to market confidence.
At present, due to the impact of the epidemic, the downstream sectors related to copper demand, such as real estate, infrastructure and automobiles, are showing a weak pattern
.
After the Politburo meeting, market sentiment may gradually improve, and the equity market has reacted
to a certain extent.
Whether the demand side can gradually change from weak reality to fulfilling the previous strong expectations under the condition that the epidemic is gradually under control is the key factor
determining the trend of copper prices in the future.
In terms of stocks, LME stocks rose by 14,400 mt to 168,800 mt and SHFE stocks fell by 0.
06 mt to 17,300 mt
.
On the whole, the current situation is affected by the epidemic, and the pattern of weak supply and demand is obvious, but this situation may gradually change
.
After the Fed completed its biggest rate hike in 20 years, the market is looking for reasonable pricing, and asset prices have been relatively volatile in the process
.
Therefore, this operation can be mainly wait-and-see for the time being
.
