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On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai copper 1710 rushed back down, falling for three consecutive days, trading at 50480-49980 yuan / ton during the day, and closing at 50060 yuan / ton at the end, down 0.
2% on the day, falling back to the level before July 25 this year, indicating heavier
selling pressure above.
In terms of term structure, the copper market maintained a positive arrangement of near low and far high, and the positive price difference between the Shanghai copper 1709 contract and the 1710 contract narrowed slightly to 140 yuan / ton
.
In the external market, Asia Lun copper fell under pressure, of which the 3-month London copper traded at 6445-6385 US dollars / ton, down slightly by 0.
34%, and continued to pay attention to technical pullback demand
in the short term.
In terms of positions, on August 10, the position of London copper was 349,000 lots, an increase of 406 per day, and the increase in London copper positions fell into a high level in the latest week, indicating that the divergence between long and short has increased, and bears have gradually taken advantage
.
On the macro front, the Asian dollar index fluctuated in a narrow range and is now trading around 93.
18, still close to the low since May 2016, as the US CPI growth in July fell on Friday, the pace of inflation slowed, and expectations of a September interest rate hike were reduced
.
At the same time, the latest macro data released in July have fallen, worse than expected, especially the industrial added value fell to 6.
4% year-on-year, hitting a new low in five months, and the growth rate of fixed asset investment also fell to a new low of 8.
3%
this year.
In the copper industry, executives from Chile's state-owned Codelco, the world's second-largest copper producer, said that due to the improved copper market environment, the company will invest in copper projects in Mongolia, and it is expected that the company's target of producing about 1.
7 million tons of copper this year can be achieved, and next year's copper production is expected to fall by 3-4%
compared with this year.
In terms of the market, on August 14, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot traded at 50 yuan / ton for the month's contract, and the trading price of flat water copper was 49960-50020 yuan / ton
.
The price difference of the next month before the delivery of copper in Shanghai fluctuated sharply, running at 190-130 yuan / ton, and the intraday transaction first rose and then declined
.
The change of basis before delivery determines the level of premium, and the transaction is mostly arbitrageurs
before delivery.
The Shanghai copper 1710 contract fell back to 50,060 yuan / ton under pressure during the day, barely located near the 50,000 yuan / ton mark, indicating that the upper rebound was blocked, due to the lack of key upward momentum, while China's key economic indicators in July were less than expected, and most of them hit new lows recently, increasing the risk
of copper prices falling.
In operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai copper 1710 contract can be backed by 50800 yuan / ton below the sky, and the entry reference is around 50300 yuan / ton, and the target is 49500 yuan / ton
.
