Shanghai copper runs strongly, continue to pay attention to the upper pressure

In terms of spot, on September 29, the trading price of Yangtze River spot 1# copper was 62500-62540 yuan / ton, up 970 yuan / ton; Liter 670-liter 710, up 20 yuan / ton
.
In the spot market, the holiday atmosphere is getting stronger, the holders continue to raise prices before the holiday, the circulation supply is relatively tight, the downstream demand is stable and good, the market has replenishment demand has been traded one after another, and the overall transaction is acceptable
.

In terms of inventories, as of September 29, London Metal Exchange (LME) copper stocks increased by 1,350 tons, or 1.
01%, to 134,900 tons; Nine consecutive rises, copper inventories continue to update more than a month high; As of September 29, the warehouse receipt of copper futures in the previous period was 3,729 tons, a decrease of 275 tons from the previous day;

On the supply side, according to the latest data from S&P, in the second quarter of this year, the world's major mining companies produced 3.
5 million tons of mineral copper, an increase of 3.
8%
year-on-year.
Among them, Zijin Mining's copper output increased by more than 90% year-on-year to 217,000 tons, and Zijin Mining's half-year copper output ranked 6th among major mining enterprises in the world
.
Among the top five mining enterprises, BHP Billiton and Freeport produced 462,000 tons and 390,000 tons, up 14.
6% and 16.
9% respectively year-on-year, while Chile's national copper, Glencore and Mexican copper group produced 348,000 tons, 252,000 tons and 237,000 tons, respectively, down 24.
9%, 15% and 12.
2%
year-on-year.
Judging from the situation in the first half of the year, affected by inflationary pressure, the epidemic, drought, and community conflicts in South America, major mining companies around the world have lowered their production guidance
for 2022.

In terms of demand, the downstream entered the end of the pre-holiday reserve, coupled with the market's post-holiday demand expectations are still pessimistic, the two days of stocking this week basically ended, but the copper price fell significantly during the week, boosting the increase in downstream procurement, the market transaction atmosphere is warm, and the fundamentals are healthy
.
In the entry into the gold nine silver ten, electricity and traditional consumption areas have picked up
.

On the whole, the Fed's increased hawkishness reflects that the determination to fight inflation remains unchanged, and the downward pressure on copper prices is greater
.
Under the macro bearish torrent, the center of gravity of copper prices shifted downward as a whole, and the decline within the week appeared, but the market picked up during the day, the pressure on copper prices weakened, and the overall trend of futures prices was strong
.
In addition, the fundamentals are healthy, global inventories are still at a low level, domestic spot circulation is tight, premiums remain high, the monthly price spread widens, and the pre-holiday reserve increases, the market transaction performance is acceptable, while the market still has good expectations for the fourth quarter, superimposed on the government's favorable policies unchanged, which supports copper prices
.
However, caution should remain on the magnitude of the rebound and continue to focus on upside pressure
.