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On Thursday, the main 2104 contract of Shanghai copper rushed back to the high, with the highest 70740 yuan / ton and the lowest 67900 yuan / ton within the day, and the closing price of 70150 yuan / ton, up 3.
30% from the previous trading day's closing price; In the external market, LME copper encountered obstacles to the upside, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month London copper reported 9540.
5 US dollars / ton, up 0.
45%
on a daily basis.
Market Focus: (1) Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said there is a lot of weakness in the job market and there is still a long way to go to achieve full employment
.
(2) The U.
S.
Department of Commerce announced that after seasonal adjustments, new home sales rose 4.
3% last month, equivalent to an annualized rate of 923,000 units
.
This figure was significantly better than expected, after the consensus expected home sales to be around
853,000 units.
(3) Norilsk's Oktyabrsky and Taimyrsky mines suspended operations
due to flooding.
(4) Japan's refined copper exports after customs clearance in January were 51,200 tons, down 1.
3%
from the same period last year.
Spot analysis: On February 26, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 69600-70200 yuan / ton, with an average price of 69900 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 1825 yuan / ton
.
Changjiang Nonferrous Metal reported that cargo holders actively shipped, but high prices suppressed consumption, and the transaction was poor
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 60,020 tons on Thursday, a daily increase of 3,095 tons; On February 24, LME copper stocks stood at 79,700 tonnes, up 6,250 tonnes
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2104 contract were 85099 lots, minus 1348 lots, short positions were 97667 lots, daily increase of 1088 lots, net short positions were 12568 lots, daily increase of 2436 lots, more short increases, net space increased
.
Market research and judgment: Shanghai copper 2104 rushed back on
February 25.
U.
S.
real estate data performed significantly better than expected, coupled with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's continued dovish signals, boosting risk sentiment
.
The supply of domestic copper mines in the upstream maintained a tight pattern, and the TC of copper processing fees continued to decrease, resulting in high smelting costs; At present, domestic and foreign copper inventories remain at a low level, of which domestic inventories are at a new low in nearly a decade, and the first quarter is also significantly lower than the same period of previous years; Coupled with the expectation of recovery in domestic and foreign demand after the holiday, it is expected to support copper prices to remain high
.
Technically, the mainstream long position reduction of the Shanghai copper 2104 contract is large, focusing on the support of the 5-day moving average, and it is expected that the short-term shock will be strong
.
