Shanghai copper rebounds at a low level The short-term downside is relatively limited

In terms of spot, on September 21, the trading price of Yangtze River spot 1# copper was 63360-63400 yuan / ton, down 70 yuan / ton; Premiums 760-liters 800, down 60 yuan / ton
.
In the spot market, the stocking before the National Day is not obvious, holders urgently need to exchange cash, downstream price pressure sentiment is high, supply and demand sides are deadlocked, and intraday spot trading is weak.

In terms of inventories, as of September 21, London Metal Exchange (LME) copper stocks increased by 10,850 tons, or 10.
13%, to 118,000 tons; As of September 21, the warehouse receipt of copper futures in the previous period was 7,946 tons, a decrease of 603 tons from the previous day;

On the supply side, according to data from the Bureau of Statistics, China's refined copper (electrolytic copper) output in August was 917,000 tons, an increase of 3.
9%
year-on-year.
From January to August, the cumulative output of refined copper (electrolytic copper) was 7.
118 million tons, an increase of 2.
6% year-on-year; China's copper production in August was 1.
965 million tons, an increase of 7.
3%
year-on-year.
From January to August, copper production totaled 14.
184 million tons, an increase of 4.
3%
year-on-year.
And the impact of power cuts on the supply side this month has basically faded, and supply is still expected to
increase.

In terms of demand, Jinjiu made up for the end, the demand is difficult to say strong, the spot trading before the National Day is not strong, coupled with the recent high spot premium, the downstream procurement willingness is low, mainly to consume the factory warehouse
.
However, the market still expects
the recovery of demand for gold, silver and ten.
Coupled with the frequent warm wind blowing on the domestic policy, there is also an opportunity
for market consumption to gradually improve after that.

On the whole, the Fed's interest rate hike meeting is imminent, and the strengthening of the dollar and higher interest rates continue to weigh on metals
.
Expectations of aggressive Fed rate hikes have largely been priced in by the market, and inflation continues to support the Fed's hawkish moves
.
However, the recent domestic policy is frequently blown and the supportive policy attitude is clear, the market still has expectations for the demand for gold, silver and ten peak seasons, and Shanghai copper is rebounded and rebounded by the rise of surrounding metal varieties within the day, so the short-term downward space of copper prices is relatively limited, when it is expected to usher in another upward market, while paying attention to the guidance
of the Fed's interest rate meeting.