Shanghai copper rally continues The spring offensive is not over

London copper fell sharply last week, and the main Shanghai copper contract closed lower
.
LME copper stocks were 79,025 tonnes, up 2,800 tonnes from last week; Copper stocks increased by 15,067 tonnes to 163025 tonnes in the previous period; The warehouse of Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 426,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons
.

On the macro front, the US stimulus bill passed by the Senate and slightly exceeded expectations; However, it may further exacerbate inflation expectations, which in turn will lead to a further rise in US bond interest rates, and Fed Chairman Powell's latest speech does not try to curb the rise in long-term interest rates; The dollar index continued to rise, driven by interest rates; Considering that the acceleration of economic recovery in Europe and the United States is still on the way, there is still room
for growth in the future.

In terms of spot, there is no obvious downstream replenishment action, but as the price declines, the inquiry has increased
.
However, since the second quarter is the traditional consumption season in China, it is expected that consumption will gradually improve
after that.

On the supply side, the supply and demand between mining and smelting is still in a tight pattern, and TC is still declining
.
On the demand side, the continuous rise in copper prices has formed a certain inhibition of downstream consumption, and the spot premium is low, but with the correction of copper prices, downstream orders have increased
one after another.
Refined waste spreads are also declining
.
Domestic spot stocks were 282,500 tons, an increase of 117,400 tons from before the holiday, and the seasonal accumulation range was slightly lower than the level of
the previous two years.
With the traditional peak season in the copper market approaching, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to downstream high-frequency data to verify how
demand recovers.