Shanghai copper opens low to the downside, and the market is more risk-aversion

At the macro level, trading around the expectation of a global recession continues, copper prices fell sharply and fell below the theoretical valuation level, copper traded a 75BP rate hike in July, but oil prices retreated, the United States was under pressure, and the Fed was still likely to complete the 3.
5% interest rate cap target through the second path, that is, the probability of a 50BP rate hike in July increased, which eased caution to some extent during the week; However, the medium-term macro bearish logic is still unchanged, at present, due to the political turmoil in some countries around the world, the market risk aversion is high, copper prices will still have the characteristics of pressure operation, but the probability of hitting a new low in the short term has declined
.

In terms of inventory, LME inventories decreased by 2,000 tons on Friday, with a spot discount of $10, and inventories in North America and Europe have increased recently, observing whether it reflects its weakening demand, spot turns to continuous discounts, and pays attention to the sustainability of
inventory return.
Last week, the Shanghai Stock Exchange increased its inventory by nearly 3,000 tons, bringing the total stock to 69,000 tons, although according to SMM statistics, the overall domestic mainstream consumption places and bonded stocks fell slightly by 10,000 tons
.
The increase in exchange inventory has led to a continuous decline in the premium of Shanghai copper spot, and the decline in the price and the disappearance of import profits, indicating that the contradiction between domestic supply and demand is still not prominent, and the price support is not obvious
.

In terms of market, the average price of electrolytic copper in Shanghai was 59860 yuan / ton, up 1470 yuan / ton; The average price of the premium was 75 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton
.
The average price of electrolytic copper in Guangdong was 59760 yuan / ton, up 1855 yuan / ton; The average price of the premium was -20 yuan / ton, down 5 yuan / ton
.

In terms of news, China found the spread of the epidemic in more places at the end of this week, and the scope of impact was greatly expanded, Shanghai added 33 new medium and high-risk areas, Shanghai and Hangzhou implemented two inspections in three days, and completely stopped public commercial services
.
The intensive epidemic will inevitably seriously disrupt economic recovery, and in a short period of time, see whether the financial market will fall into panic again, seriously bearish, and continue to pay attention to the development of
the epidemic.

At present, overseas interest rate hikes and recession dominate macro pricing, short-term attention to the German-Russian energy game, whether panic has been slightly alleviated, domestic concern about the widespread spread of the epidemic may cause panic, bears aggravated
.