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On Thursday, the main 2103 contract of Shanghai copper opened low and went low, with the highest 58580 yuan / ton in the day, the lowest 57620 yuan / ton, and the closing price of 57760 yuan / ton, down 1.
63% from the closing price of the previous trading day; In the external market, LME copper continued to fall, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month London copper was reported at 7789 US dollars / ton, down 0.
69%
on the day.
Market focus: (1) The Fed announced the resolution of the January interest rate meeting, maintaining the federal funds rate range of 0-0.
25% and the size of the asset purchase program of $120 billion per month, which is fully in line with
market expectations.
(2) At 21:30 Beijing time, the annualized real GDP of the United States in the fourth quarter will be released, and the market is expected to fall to 4.
2%, and the third quarter data is 33.
4%.
(3) Japan's refined copper exports in December increased by 24.
2% year-on-year to 49930403 kg; In 2020, the export volume was 41.
1% year-on-year, reaching 757078016 kg
.
Spot analysis: On January 28, spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation was 57810-58080 yuan / ton, the average price was 57945 yuan / ton, down 825 yuan / ton
per day.
Yangtze River nonferrous metal report, wait-and-see mainly, low-price supply is difficult to find, downstream consumption is general, stocking is nearing the end
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 20,360 tons on Thursday, a daily decrease of 275 tons; On January 27, LME copper stocks were 77,175 tons, down 2,100 tons per day, down for 12 consecutive days
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2103 contract are 72008 lots, minus 10 lots per day, 79396 short positions, 1845 lots per day, 7388 net short positions, 1835 lots per day, both long and short are reduced, and net space is reduced
.
Domestic copper mine supply maintained a tight pattern, copper ore processing fees TC continued to be reduced, and copper smelting costs were high; However, the implementation of the new policy for scrap copper has greatly increased the import volume, and the price difference between refined waste has widened, and the substitution role will gradually increase; At the end of the year, downstream stockpiles are nearing the end, and the traditional off-season demand is gradually weakening, but inventories are at historic lows and there is still support
below copper prices.
Technically, the Shanghai copper 2103 contract increased its position and broke the range, the short atmosphere was strengthened, and it is expected to be weak and volatile
in the short term.
