Shanghai copper opened sharply lower and expected short-term volatility to be weak

Market focus: (1) The People's Bank of China carried out a reverse repurchase operation of 1.
2 trillion yuan within the day and lowered the interest rate by 10bp
.
(2) The United States declares a public health emergency, and non-U.
S.
citizens who have been to China 14 days prior to entry will be barred from entering the country
.
(3) China Minmetals once again suspended Las Bambas copper transportation, with local community members protesting that the land was continuously polluted and therefore blocking roads, although it is expected to have little impact on production
.

Spot analysis: On February 3, the spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation was 44750-45080 yuan / ton, the average price was 44915 yuan / ton, and the daily decline was 3105 yuan / ton
.
Most enterprises in the spot market have not started work, and logistics are mostly in a state of forced stagnation, and actual transactions are difficult to carry out
.
Copper prices fell to the low level in the past three years, which has a certain attraction to market buying, although there is still time to start downstream work, but most downstream enterprises have very low inventory during the festival, and even if there are arrivals during the imported copper festival, all the power of the customs festival is used for epidemic prevention materials, although the state-owned smelter has normal production, but limited to logistics and rarely arrives in the warehouse, so the supply side is temporarily difficult to appear a large number of accumulated state
in previous years.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts on Monday was 78,210 tons, an increase of 5,575 tons per day; On January 31, LME copper stocks stood at 180725 tonnes, up 1,825 tonnes
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2003 contract are 74097 lots, daily reduction of 8069 lots, short positions of 80119 lots, daily reduction of 5899 lots, net short positions of 6022 lots, daily increase of 2170 lots, long and short are reduced, net space increases
.

Market research and judgment: On February 3, the main force of Shanghai copper in 2003 opened low and continued to fall
.
The epidemic of new pneumonia in China continues to spread, most of the domestic downstream processing enterprises have delayed the resumption of work, while the vitality of terminal consumption has been suppressed, and the market has become more worried about the economic outlook, but the People's Bank of China will carry out a reverse repurchase operation of 1.
2 trillion yuan on the first day after the holiday, and cut the interest rate by 10bp to maintain abundant liquidity and smooth operation
of the money market during the special period of the epidemic.
In addition, domestic refined copper production rose sharply in December last year, and domestic copper stocks showed an upward trend
.
In terms of spot, most enterprises in the spot market have not started, logistics is also in a state of forced stagnation, actual transactions are difficult to carry out, copper prices fell to the low level in nearly three years, the market buying has a certain attractiveness, although the downstream start of work is still time, but most downstream enterprises during the holiday period self-owned inventory is very low
.
Technically, the main 2003 contract of Shanghai copper jumped to a three-year low, and the daily KDJ continued to decline, and the short-term shock is expected to be weak
.