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On Monday, Shanghai copper opened low and went low, and the market continued to decline during the day, the main monthly 2209 contract opened at 62390 yuan / ton, and the daily close was 61480 yuan / ton, down 1240 yuan / ton, down 1.
98%.
Shanghai copper weakened during the day, mainly because last Friday's domestic financial data and the latest domestic economic data were less than expected
.
On the macro front, despite the decline in high inflation in the United States, Fed officials remained hawkish and the dollar index rebounded
slightly.
The domestic social financing increment and new loans performance is less than expected, the year-on-year growth of industrial added value in July fell by percentage points from the previous month, the year-on-year growth rate of consumption data also declined, the real estate market showed a downward posture, still building a bottom, a number of data weakening made the market worried about the increase of downward pressure on the economy, despite the unexpected interest rate cut by the People's Bank of China in the morning, but market confidence is still insufficient, non-ferrous metals intraday decline expanded
.
On the supply side, copper concentrate processing fees rose to $74.
38/ton last week, port inventories remained at a high level of 900,000 tons, and the market concentrate supply was relatively abundant
.
Smelter production capacity gradually recovered in August, but the impact of the power restriction policy is expected to narrow the production increase
.
On the demand side, the acceleration of power investment has driven the operating rate of fine copper rods to continue to rise, recovering to 74.
24% last week, but the recent shortage of electricity in East China, Anhui, Zhejiang, Jiangsu three provinces copper production accounted for 40% of the country, power curtailment management is expected to have a certain impact
on downstream construction.
In terms of stocks, LME copper stocks increased significantly last week, weighing more than 130,000 tonnes
.
With the strengthening of copper prices, downstream purchases tend to be cautious, and domestic copper stocks have also bid farewell to the state of decomposition, and the weekly copper inventory increased by more than 7,000 tons to more than
40,000 tons as of last Friday.
In August, with the end of smelter maintenance, production resumed, and new projects were put into operation, inventories are expected to continue to recover, and low inventories may weaken
copper prices.
Comprehensive analysis, market sentiment is weak, Fed officials remain hawkish, the dollar rebounded, copper prices are under pressure, and various domestic economic data are lower than expected, which has dampened market sentiment, and businesses and consumers are cautious about taking on more debt due to the recurrence of the epidemic, employment concerns and real estate difficulties
.
At the same time, inventories on domestic and foreign exchanges rebounded last week, low inventories weakened the support for copper prices, and downstream demand remained cautious, and the decline in Shanghai copper continued to deepen
during the day.
Under the influence of bearish factors, the rebound trend of copper prices may be delayed
.