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On Thursday, the main monthly 2303 contract of Shanghai copper rose strongly for five consecutive days, touching a nearly seven-month high, opening at 68,020 yuan / ton, and closing at 68,660 yuan / ton, up 1,240 yuan / ton, or 1.
84%.
Macro expectations are good, the dollar maintains a downward trend, most non-ferrous metals rise, coupled with domestic loose monetary policy and the launch of multiple measures for real estate policy support, to promote market confidence to rise, under the strong expectation of speculation, Shanghai copper once rushed, is expected to touch the 60,000 nine pressure level
.
In terms of spot, on January 12, the trading price of CCMN Yangtze River spot 1# copper was 68510-68550 yuan / ton, with an average price of 68530 yuan, up 940 yuan / ton; The premium was reported at 50 to 90 yuan / ton, unchanged
.
In the spot market, the downstream acceptance of high copper prices is low, the buyer's willingness to replenish storage is general, and the actual transaction is average
under the blessing of the off-season atmosphere.
On the supply side, the inventory of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts has increased recently, and the overall inventory of the domestic copper market has accumulated, and the accumulation range around the Spring Festival is expected to be higher than in previous years
.
However, the supply of spot delivery is tight, due to the limited supply of imported supplementary supplies and insufficient
refined copper production.
In addition, the low inventory pattern is difficult to change in the short term, and there is still strong support
for copper prices.
On the demand side, the domestic downstream fine copper rod operating rate fell sharply by 8.
1 percentage points month-on-month, under the influence of this seasonal off-season, downstream processing enterprises are generally depressed, in the pre-holiday atmosphere and weak demand side by side, the market trading behavior is weakening day by day, the order volume continues to decrease, coupled with copper prices continue to break upward, making spot trading difficult to have bright performance, demand off-season deepening
.
Overall, the current peripheral sentiment is warm and domestic policies are favorable to push up market optimistic expectations, and the recent strong expectations speculation overshadows the weak reality, coupled with the dollar continues to hover around the seven-month low, positive for risk asset prices, most metals trend is boosted, Shanghai copper rose to a nearly seven-month high, five consecutive days of copper prices rise beautifully
.
It is expected that copper in Shanghai is expected to break through the 69,000 mark, but what needs to be vigilant is the deepening of the consumption off-season, and the weak reality is still a "stumbling block"
on the road to copper price rise.
