Shanghai copper narrow range shock finishing downstream production resumption continued slowly

On the macro front, as the situation in Russia and Ukraine continues to deteriorate, short-term overnight index swaps (OIS) currently show that the market expects the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in March to be about 89%, and a 50 basis point rate hike is completely out of expectations
.
In addition, crude oil prices ignored the IEA's agreement to release 60 million barrels of oil reserves, and still recorded an increase of more than 10% yesterday, which has a positive impact on copper prices from the perspective of inflation expectations
.

From a fundamental point of view, the change is relatively limited, in terms of Shanghai copper, TC prices continued to recover slightly last week, while downstream production resumed slowly, coupled with the continuous fermentation of the epidemic in Suzhou, Nantong and other places has also dragged down consumption to a certain extent.

It shows that the holders try to actively ship, and the copper premium in South China shows a continuous downward trend
.

In terms of stocks, the LME edged out 0.
02 million tonnes to 72,900 tonnes and SHFE edged up 01,300 tonnes to 72,100 tonnes
.
On the import side, the import window continued to close, and market trading continued to remain low
.

Overall, the market risk aversion has further heated up, and poor consumption has dragged down the performance of copper prices, but inflation factors may have a more obvious boost
to copper prices.