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Overnight, the Shanghai copper 1611 contract opened at 37650 yuan / ton, after the opening of the short-term downward test of the 10-day moving average support, the low recorded 37540 yuan / ton, then a wave of short liquidation outflow, a small number of longs into the market, copper prices rushed to 37870 yuan / ton, and then followed the external shrinkage downward to the daily average to the daily average of 37730 yuan / ton near consolidation, at 37690 yuan / ton to close the small white line, Reduce positions by 3576 lots to 135,000 lots, the trading volume decreased by 99060 lots to 51734 lots, the last trading day before the holiday, long and short should be based on reducing positions and hedging, and the recent successive long upper shadow and long lower shadow reflect the dilemma of copper prices, and it is expected that the Shanghai copper shock runs in the range of 37500-37800 yuan / ton
.
In terms of market: on September 29, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot reported a premium of 140-190 yuan / ton, and the transaction price of flat water copper was 38000-38050 yuan / ton
.
Shanghai copper rose sharply, and downstream buying was still warm, making the current copper premium rise
again.
However, as the long holiday approaches, more holders have joined the cash exchange team, and downstream purchases are gradually saturated
.
Considering that today is the last trading day before the holiday, coupled with the pressure of the new logistics and transportation policy, Shanghai's current copper premium state may gradually fade.
Inventories: As of September 29, the previous Shanghai copper inventory reported 130,780 tons, down 5,549 tons from last Friday, a new low in the next year, and far lower than the average inventory value of 232,000 tons during the year, indicating that the pressure on domestic inventories is much weaker than that of foreign countries
.
The main Shanghai copper contract oscillated overnight to close up to 37,700 yuan / ton, and the market is currently focused on the Chinese manufacturing PMI data to be released on October 1, and it is expected to
be more cautious.
At the same time, given the market's expectation that the downstream will still be replenished before the eleventh day, it will support
copper prices.
In terms of operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai copper 1612 contract can be cautiously long above 37300 yuan, with a target of 38200 yuan
.
