Shanghai copper main shock adjustment downstream demand gradually recovered

Market focus: (1) St.
Louis Fed President Bullard said that the Fed should taper its asset purchases this fall and proceed fairly quickly, and financial markets are well prepared
for this.
(2) Caixin China's manufacturing PMI fell to 50.
3 in July, the lowest
since May 2020.
The July manufacturing PMI released by the Bureau of Statistics recorded 50.
4, down 0.
5 percentage points from June and the lowest
since March 2020.
(3) According to my nonferrous metal network, China's copper concentrate port inventory was 701,000 tons on July 30, down 26,000 tons
from last week.
(4) On August 1, workers at the Escondida copper mine in Chile, the world's largest copper mine, voted to go on strike
.

Spot analysis: On August 2, the spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation was 71600-71850 yuan / ton, the average price was 71725 yuan / ton, down 125 yuan / ton
per day.
The spot market continued to hold the price sentiment, traders speculated cautiously, the downstream fear of heights only needed to purchase, the overall trading was weak, and the transaction activity was average
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts in Shanghai was 46,191 tons, a daily decrease of 574 tons, and a decrease of 34 consecutive days; LME copper stocks were 238,650 tonnes, down 1,000 tonnes
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2109 contract 75743, -570, short positions 85091, -974, net positions -9348, +404, long and short are reduced, net space is reduced
.

Market research and judgment: China's manufacturing PMI data for July was lowered, indicating a slowdown in the pace of manufacturing expansion; Fed official Bullard believes that asset purchases should be tapered in the fall, which boosted the dollar index
.
Fundamentals, the second batch of domestic reserves landed, the quantity was lower than market expectations, and the market mentality stabilized
.
The supply of upstream raw materials gradually recovered, and TC prices continued to recover, but the Escondida copper mine decided to strike, causing supply concerns
.
And recently, the domestic smelting industry has been disrupted again, a smelter in Shandong Province accidentally stopped production due to an accident in the middle of the month, and the peak electricity consumption in summer increased the interference of the operation of the smelting industry
.
Downstream demand gradually picked up, and the social treasury continued to decline, which strengthened the support for copper prices
.