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On Wednesday, the LME copper fluctuated and pulled, as of 15:05 Beijing time, the three-month London copper was reported at $5861.
5 / ton, down 0.
31%
on the day.
The main 2001 contract of Shanghai copper fell back, with the highest 47240 yuan / ton and the lowest 46900 yuan / ton during the day, and the closing price was 47050 yuan / ton, up 0.
34% from the closing price of the previous trading day; The trading volume was 143,900 lots, an increase of 48,202 lots per day, and the position was 213,100 lots, a daily decrease of 1,936 lots
.
The basis was expanded to 140 yuan/ton; The price difference between Shanghai copper from 1912 to 2001 narrowed to -60 yuan / ton
.
Market focus: (1) The People's Bank of China reduced the quotation of LPR for 1 year and more than 5 years by 5 basis points
.
(2) Trump reiterated that if no agreement is negotiated, tariffs on Chinese goods will be raised
.
(3) Zhuochuang data shows that the copper used in the real estate industry from January to October was about 1.
0537 million tons, down 2.
15% year-on-year, of which the amount of copper used in new houses was 387,600 tons
.
(4) Freeport expects copper concentrate processing fees (TC/RCs) in 2020 to be "well below" this year's level due to increased smelting capacity in China
.
Spot analysis: On November 20, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 47160-47220 yuan / ton, with an average price of 47190 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 235 yuan / ton
.
Spot market holders are willing to exchange cash at high prices, but the willingness of the market to receive goods is low, there are few transactions, holders have no choice but to lower the quotation, after the low replenishment of the previous days, downstream consumption is afraid of high stops, copper rises, market trade speculation and downstream consumption are showing a cautious wait-and-see attitude, more shippers and fewer receivers, and there is room for price reduction
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 60,840 tons on Wednesday, an increase of 2,419 tons per day; On 19 November, LME copper stocks were 219475 tonnes, down 1,975 tonnes
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2001 contract were 66081 lots, minus 691 lots per day, short positions were 77652 lots, daily increase of 631 lots, net short positions were 11571 lots, daily increase of 1322 lots, more short positions, net space increased
.
Market research and judgment: On November 20, the main force of Shanghai copper 2001 rushed back down
.
Trump's reiteration of the Sino-US trade threat has added to the market's worries, while the performance of the terminal real estate and home appliance industries lacks bright spots, downstream demand is still weak, and the pressure on copper prices has increased, but the People's Bank of China has lowered the LPR interest rate, counter-cyclical adjustment has increased again, while the recent global copper inventory has shown a downward trend, and terminal demand is still expected to grow at the end of the year, which has supported copper prices
.
In terms of spot, the willingness of holders in the spot market to exchange cash at high prices is high, but the willingness of the market to receive goods is low, there are few transactions, and the holders have no choice but to reduce the quotation, and after the low replenishment in previous days, downstream consumption is afraid to stop
.
Technically, the Shanghai copper main 2001 contract is long and the upper shadow, the trading volume has increased significantly, operationally, it is recommended that the Shanghai copper 2001 contract can be short around 47100 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 47250 yuan / ton
.
