Shanghai copper low opening volatility is still affected by macro factors in the short term

On the macro front, expectations for a 75 basis point rate hike by the Fed in the early hours of Thursday Beijing time jumped to 99%
now, according to CME's Fedwatch tool.
This puts non-ferrous metals, including copper, under pressure, and operational recommendations are relatively cautious
for the time being before the interest rate meeting.
Domestically, the number of new confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia has remained at a low level, Shanghai and Beijing have returned to normal life order, and sporadic new confirmed cases have caused a certain degree of caution in the market
.
There is some overlap
between increased pressure in overseas markets and a slight convergence of domestic optimism.
From this point of view, the impact of the macro market on copper prices will be reflected
in the short term.

On the supply side, in June, the tight supply of copper improved, Xiangguang began to ship, after Shanghai was unblocked, logistics and transportation problems began to recover, copper outbound and customs declaration volume have increased
.
LME copper stocks fell to 117,000 tonnes and are trending
towards China.

In terms of consumption, in June, the impact of the epidemic on infrastructure, real estate and other industries dissipated
significantly.
If copper operating rates continue to rise, it is expected to drive refined copper consumption, but sustainability still depends on the performance
of terminal demand.
At the same time, the domestic introduction of the automotive industry consumption stimulus policy, the automotive industry production rhythm is expected to be different from the usual year, will set off a wave of production and sales in June
.

In terms of stocks, LME stocks rose 0.
19 million tonnes to 119,900 tonnes
yesterday.
SHFE stocks fell 0.
01 million tonnes to 09,300 tonnes
.

Overall, the current market has optimistic expectations for good demand, but the reality is still slightly weak
.
At the same time, on the macro side, inflation is still high under the Fed's hawkish tightening of money, which makes the market more worried about the future economic outlook, which is also relatively unfavorable for the demand outlook for copper, but on the other hand, the continued high inflation has a certain boost effect on commodities, so the macro factor is currently relatively complex
.
This week, as it coincides with the Fed's interest rate meeting week, it is temporarily treated with relative caution
.