Shanghai copper low opening oscillation, downstream still maintain rigid demand

Market focus, US housing starts fell for 2 consecutive months, and construction permit data fell to a 2-year low; At the same time, the IMF's latest report states that the US dollar's real effective exchange rate is expected to be relatively overvalued by 6-12%
compared to US fundamentals.
The World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) released data on Wednesday showing that the global copper market was oversupplied by 21,000 tonnes from January to May 2019, compared with a shortfall of 19,000 tonnes for the whole of 2018
.
Ecuador's EI Mirador copper mine will come on August 18 with 660 million tonnes of copper reserves, with an initial production of 400 tonnes
of copper ore per day.

Spot analysis: On July 18, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 46700-46860 yuan / ton, with an average price of 46780 yuan / ton, down 110
from the previous trading day.
The performance of the spot market continued to be deadlocked, buying was average, and the market maintained the previous day's quotations
.
Pingshui copper is reluctant to reduce shipments, if there is a low-price source in the market is still favored by traders, good copper quotations tend to maintain stability, and downstream still maintain rigid demand
.
The market has the willingness to receive goods at a low price, but the willingness of the holders to hold the price is clear, the performance of the market gives up some of the previous gains, the trend is temporarily unclear, the quotation continues to show a deadlock, the supply and demand sides have differences, and the performance is
deadlocked.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 65,145 tons on Thursday, a daily decrease of 226 tons; On July 17, LME copper stocks stood at 299,600 tonnes, an increase of 6,675 tonnes
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 1909 contract are 76346 lots, minus 333 lots per day, short positions are 84537 lots, daily increase of 355 lots, net short positions are 8191 lots, daily increase of 688 lots, more short increases, net short increases
.

Market research and judgment: On July 18, the main 1909 contract of Shanghai copper opened low and fluctuated
.
The poor performance of the US economic data, coupled with the IMF's overvaluation of the US dollar, put pressure on the US dollar, while the increase in upstream copper mine supply concerns and the recovery of downstream copper prices supported copper prices, but copper inventories continued to increase, copper prices still showed weakness
.
In terms of spot, the performance of the spot market continues to be deadlocked, buying is general, the market maintains the previous day's quotation, if the market has a low-priced source of goods is still favored by traders, good copper quotations tend to maintain stability, downstream still maintain rigid demand
.
Technically, the MACD red column of the main 1909 contract of Shanghai copper is flat, focusing on the 10-day moving average support, and it is expected that there will be more
short-term volatility.