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Today's Shanghai copper main contract 1703 oscillation strengthened, the end of the day closed at 46730 yuan / ton, up 0.
28%, partially cut the previous two days of decline, the current Shanghai copper fell back to the moving average intertwined operation, but still far above M60, rebound resistance focus on 47500 yuan / ton
.
In terms of term structure, the copper market maintained a positive arrangement of near-low, far-high, and the positive price difference between the Shanghai copper 1702 contract and the 1703 contract widened slightly to 150 yuan / ton, indicating that the willingness of forward contracts to rise has increased
.
Externally: Asian market London copper rebounded weakly, under pressure decline, of which 3-month London copper edged up 0.
16% to 5768 US dollars / ton, but still effectively stabilized above the main moving average group, the upward pattern maintained well
.
In terms of positions, on January 17, the position of London copper was 348,000 lots, a sharp decrease of 10,974 hands in Japan, and the decline of London copper this week showed that the bulls were more motivated to reduce their positions
.
Macro: The dollar index rose strongly overnight and is now trading around 101.
26, and the Asian dollar index rebounded slightly to around
101.
34 today.
Watch for the ECB's interest rate decision at 20:45 tonight, expect to keep interest rates unchanged, but pay attention to the press conference
held by Draghi at 21:30.
In addition, the market is also focused on tomorrow's Trump inauguration and China's economic performance throughout 2016
.
In terms of market: on January 19, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot traded at a discount of 150 yuan / ton - 40 yuan / ton for the current month's contract, and the transaction price of flat water copper was 46430-46550 yuan / ton
.
The enthusiasm for receiving goods has gradually cooled down, the inventory status of the holders has gradually come to an end, the market quotations have decreased, the source of good copper is still scarce, the discount has narrowed slightly, the price difference between flat water copper brands is still large, the downstream market entry volume has decreased, the receiving volume has steadily declined, and the market has begun to show a state of supply and demand
tug-of-war.
In terms of industries, the latest report of the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) shows that the global copper market had an oversupply of 17,000 tons from January to November 2016 and 30,000 tons in the same period in 2015, indicating that the excess volume narrowed slightly as the growth rate of global copper consumption exceeded supply
.
From January to November, global copper consumption was 21.
35 million tons, an increase of 570,000 tons year-on-year; The output was 21.
37 million tons, an increase of 560,000 tons
year-on-year.
Intraday Shanghai copper 1703 contract oscillation rebounded to 46730 yuan / ton, this week copper price correction in addition to external factors suppressed, copper prices continued to rise, bulls high profit taking demand also increased significantly, but because of the short-term rise pattern remains, the pullback should not be too bearish
.
In terms of operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai copper 1703 contract can be backed by 45900 yuan / ton above the dip, the entry reference is 46400 yuan, and the target is 47500 yuan / ton
.
