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On Monday, the main 2105 contract of Shanghai copper opened high and fluctuated, with a maximum of 67440 yuan / ton, a minimum of 66220 yuan / ton, and a closing price of 66800 yuan / ton, up 1.
18% from the previous trading day's closing price; LME copper encountered obstacles to the upside, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month London copper was reported at $9,021 / ton, down 0.
50%
on a daily basis.
Market focus: (1) The chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that US President Joe Biden's $1.
9 trillion stimulus package may push consumer prices up temporarily, but inflation is unlikely to last long
.
(2) On March 22, China's electrolytic copper market inventory was 297,500 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons from last Thursday and an increase of 01,600 tons
from last Monday.
(3) According to Mysteel, China's copper concentrate TC was $31.
4/dry ton, down $0.
2/dry ton
from last week.
Spot analysis: On March 22, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 66620-67040 yuan / ton, with an average price of 66830 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 230 yuan / ton
.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that demand continued to be weak, downstream maintained rigid consumption, and the overall transaction was deadlocked
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: the total amount of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts on Monday was 114367 tons, a daily decrease of 251 tons; On March 19, LME copper stocks were 104,950 tonnes, down 1,475 tonnes
per day.
As of the week of March 19, the previous Shanghai copper inventory reported 187372 tons, a weekly increase of 15,578 tons, an increase of 7 consecutive weeks
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2105 contract were 88578 lots, minus 1555 lots per day, short positions were 96784 lots, daily minus 574 lots, net short positions were 8206 lots, daily increase of 981 lots, long and short were reduced, net short increased
.
Market research and judgment: Shanghai copper 2105 opened high on March 22
.
The Fed's firm attitude to maintain ultra-loose monetary policy has eased market concerns about early interest rate hikes; However, US inflation has heated up and US Treasury yields have risen, and the dollar index has continued to strengthen.
Upstream domestic copper mine inventories continue to decline, and processing fee TC continues to decline, resulting in high smelting costs, and the current copper mine production is still affected by strikes and epidemic factors, copper mine tightening concerns have increased
.
The performance of downstream domestic demand is still weak, but domestic inventories are still significantly lower than the same period of previous years; And with the arrival of the traditional peak season, downstream demand is expected to improve, which supports copper prices
.
Technically, the mainstream long position reduction of the Shanghai copper 2105 contract is large, the triangle convergence trend, and the short-term shock adjustment
is expected.
