Shanghai copper high fell back in the short term or will continue to face pressure

In terms of external trading, LME copper opened in a narrow range at a high of $6966 in March, fell back to $6893 under pressure after the Asian market opened, and rebounded slightly before closing, closing at $6930, down $38.
5, or 0.
55%.

Looking back at the refined copper production since the first quarter of this year, we find that the actual increase in production is better than expected, on the one hand, thanks to the increase in the production speed of new smelting projects at the end of last year; On the other hand, the reduction in production due to the maintenance of domestic smelters was much lower than the same period
last year.
In terms of imports, the domestic value-added tax rate will be lowered from May, and the difference between purchase and sales in the next month will be less than one percentage point to stimulate spot imports, superimposed on the production of refined copper production is better than expected, and the domestic spot pressure will increase
more than expected.

In terms of copper scrap, the pressure of refined copper destocking in the second quarter of this year increased compared with the same period last year, but the impact
of copper scrap on the refined copper market still needs to be considered.
From the January to February scrap copper import data, the reduction of scrap 7 imports is basically in line with expectations, and the increase in scrap 6 imports mostly makes up for the decline of scrap 7, so that the copper content of scrap copper imports in the first two months only fell by about
20,000-30,000 tons year-on-year.
On the one hand, copper prices are still at a high level and the price difference of waste electricity is acceptable, on the other hand, the customs inspection of waste 6 is acceptable, which does not affect the declaration of normal goods
.
After entering March, with the decline in copper prices and the narrowing of the price difference between scrap copper, the source of scrap copper, which was not loose, began to be sold, and the economic decline of scrap copper turned to increase the consumption
of electric copper.

In terms of news, the turbulent pattern of the financial market caused by the trade dispute has temporarily come to an end, the recent domestic economic data trend is divergent, investors are worried about the economic outlook, the global copper explicit inventory remains high, and the recent downstream enterprises take the initiative to replenish the stock of insufficient momentum, which may limit the space
for copper prices to rebound.
However, there may be support below the short-term copper price, the US core PPI growth in March hit a new seven-year high, and global market inflation expectations remain.

From the perspective of futures, Shanghai copper main MACD gold cross, KDJ gold cross, the bottom of the price rebounded back to the 20-day moving average, short-term or will continue to impact the 51,000 yuan integer mark pressure, but the upper trend line counterpressure or make the rebound weaker
.