Shanghai copper fluctuated and fell, and the market traded relatively quietly

Market focus: (1) The IMF expects global GDP growth to be -3% in 2020, and 5.
8%
in 2021 if the epidemic can be effectively controlled in the second half of this year.
(2) China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products in March were 441,926 tons, an increase of 13% year-on-year; Imports of copper ore and its concentrate reached 1.
78 million tonnes in March, the lowest level
in September 2019.

Spot analysis: On April 15, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 41770-41900 yuan / ton, with an average price of 41835 yuan / ton, down 135 yuan / ton
daily.
The market trading on the delivery day is relatively quiet, whether traders or downstream purchasing desire is not high, the market transaction price maintained the previous day's level, overall, the recent Guangdong inventory continued to decline, the market supply is relatively tight, it is expected that the premium will remain at a high level
after the change of month.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 171841 tons on Tuesday, a daily decrease of 1516 tons, a continuous decline of 19 days; On April 9, LME copper stocks stood at 260275 tonnes, up 425 tonnes
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2006 contract were 68783 lots, a daily increase of 2087 lots, short positions were 80930 lots, a daily increase of 2514 lots, a net short position of 12147 lots, a daily increase of 427 lots, long and short increases, and net space increased
.

Copper mine production in South America has increased due to the impact of the epidemic, and transportation restrictions have also led to a decline in China's scrap copper imports, and the supply of raw materials tends to be tight; And the production of processing enterprises has basically recovered, downstream demand has improved, and the recent downward trend in Shanghai copper inventories has supported copper prices
.
However, the IMF expects a severe recession this year, as well as the current overseas epidemic, a significant decline in export orders, and weak demand limiting the upward momentum of copper prices
.
In terms of spot, the market trading on the delivery day is relatively quiet, regardless of traders or downstream purchasing desire is not high, the market transaction price remains at the previous day's level
.
Technically, the main 2006 contract daily MACD red column contraction of Shanghai copper, mainstream bulls increased their positions more, and short-term shock adjustment
is expected.