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Shanghai copper rose first and then suppressed last week, and the price fluctuated sharply during the week and stabilized weakly, and weekly spot copper fell 840 yuan
.
Last week, the situation in Russia and Ukraine deteriorated, financial market risk aversion was high, crude oil, gold, the US dollar once soared, copper prices under pressure slightly declined, as of Friday afternoon 3 pm Shanghai copper main 2204 contract was reported at 70690 points, a weekly decline of 1.
67% or 1200 yuan
.
Macro disturbances are frequent, the Russian-Ukrainian war has officially begun, the global stock market has been impacted, involving supply-side interference, and surrounding metals have risen sharply, but copper prices are relatively limited in volatility, mainly suppressed by risk aversion
.
At present, NATO does not have the tendency to join the war, mainly through finance, imports and other aspects of mutual sanctions, so the continued fermentation of bearishness needs to continue to wait and see
.
From the perspective of the long cycle, high inflation continues to provide support for medium-term copper prices, short-term market cautious wait-and-see, macro bearish disturbance, there is demand for a pullback, space is expected to be limited
.
In the market, spot copper fell by 840 yuan last week, and good copper rose 240 yuan
on Friday.
Last week's market rose and fell sharply, downstream wait-and-see sentiment was strong, Thursday, Friday trading gradually picked up, the last period of the seasonal warehouse, the supply side is relatively abundant, and the holder with the market to lower the price willingness is strong, prompting the rise steadily
.
In terms of import profit and loss, affected by geopolitics this week, the US dollar index rose sharply, the RMB volatility was not large, and the import loss was further narrowed, and the gap was only around
100 yuan / ton.
From a fundamental point of view, the tight pattern of copper ore continues to improve, the domestic market enters seasonal accumulation, and the inventory in the previous period increases, but the global inventory is still at a low level
.
Affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the LME nickel price fluctuated sharply, driving the resonance of surrounding non-ferrous metals, and then calmed down with the news, gradually reducing the gains
.
At present, the news is gradually exhausted in the face of the impact of copper prices, the fundamental supply and demand of Shanghai copper to maintain a tight balance, it is recommended to pay attention to the Fed's interest rate decision in the near future, and the technical situation may continue to rebound slightly after the stabilization of Shanghai copper, and the price of copper may be negative as the interest rate hike settles
.
It is expected that Shanghai copper will rise first and then suppress wide range oscillations
.
