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Trade Service
Today's Shanghai copper main contract 1612 contract fell under pressure, closing down to 37,630 yuan / ton, down 0.
84% from yesterday's closing price, as China's September export data was far worse than expected and China's copper import demand fell
further.
In addition, the decline in other surrounding non-ferrous metals also weighed on copper prices, with the main Shanghai zinc contract continuing to fall
.
However, at present, Shanghai copper is still effectively running on the M60, and short-term operation needs to be cautious
.
In terms of term structure, the copper market turned into a negative arrangement of near high and far low, with the negative spread between the Shanghai copper 1611 contract and the 1612 contract being 40 yuan / ton
.
Externally: Asian Lun copper fell under pressure, falling for the third consecutive day, of which 3-month London copper fell 0.
76% to 4771 US dollars / ton, down 1.
83% from this week's high of 4860 US dollars / ton, its technical form is weaker than Shanghai copper, and the lower support focuses on 4700 US dollars / ton
.
In terms of positions, on October 11, the position of London copper was 323,000 lots, an increase of 436 lots per day, indicating that short-term long-short trading is still repeated, and the sentiment of the copper market is sluggish
.
Macro: The Asian dollar index stabilized around 98, and U.
S.
crude oil futures fell 0.
54% under pressure, further cutting gains this week
.
China's exports fell 10 percent year-on-year in September, the sharpest drop in seven months, and imports fell 1.
9 percent year-on-year in September, also far worse than the previous reading and expectations, adding to fears of
a slowdown in China.
In terms of industry, customs data show that China's copper concentrate imports in September were 1.
39 million tons, down 4.
1% month-on-month, the first decline in three months, but climbed 11.
4% year-on-year, and the cumulative import of copper concentrate from January to September was 12.
25 million tons, up 31.
32% year-on-year, and China's unwrought copper and copper products increased by only 11.
8% year-on-year during the same period, and the data shows that China is still actively importing copper concentrate and reducing refined copper imports
.
In terms of market: on October 13, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot traded 60 yuan / ton - 150 yuan / ton for the monthly contract, and the transaction price of flat water copper was 37950-38040 yuan / ton
.
Holders are eager to exchange cash, have reduced the premium shipments, the current copper quotation level to the delivery level, all the way down, after entering the second trading period, the market further declined, some speculators into the market, absorb low-priced sources, favor flat water copper and wet copper, flat water copper low-price sources decreased, downstream wait-and-see sentiment is strong, waiting for lower prices to enter the market, the transaction is dominated by middlemen, it is expected that the wet copper source will appear discounted
.
The Shanghai copper 1612 contract fell under pressure to 37630 yuan / ton during the day, mainly suppressed by China's short trade data and the strong rise of the US dollar index, but the current technical Shanghai copper pattern has not been reversed, and short-term operations need to be cautious
.
It is recommended that the Shanghai copper 1612 contract can be sold high and low between 37200-38200 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 350 yuan / ton
each.
