Shanghai copper contracts continue to fall under pressure, and the risk of short-term decline increases

In terms of external trading, Asian Lun copper continued to fall under pressure, trading range of 6635-6550 US dollars / ton, of which as of 15:40 Beijing time, 3-month London copper reported 6578 US dollars / ton, down 0.
65% per day, last week London copper has fallen 2.
68%, for three consecutive weeks
.
In terms of positions, as of June 28, the position of London copper was 320,000, an increase of 2,432 lots per day, the first increase in four trading days, indicating that after the continuous decline in copper prices, the long-short divergence increased
.

On the macro front, the Asian dollar index oscillated and rebounded, partially cutting Friday's losses and now trading around 94.
8, but the dollar index has been consolidating at the high level for more than two weeks, indicating that the high rise is weak, and it is still necessary to be vigilant about the risk of
pullback.
In addition, China's official manufacturing PMI fell month-on-month in June, deepening market concerns about
China's economic slowdown.

In terms of industry, it is reported that copper premiums in Shanghai and European ports have fallen in the past week, as the contrarian spread in the LME market has increased
selling pressure.

In terms of the market, on July 2, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot traded at a discount of 140-70 yuan / ton for the contract of the month, and the transaction price of flat water copper was 51170-51210 yuan / ton
.
The early quotation raised the copper to a discount of about 60 yuan / ton, and the flat water copper quotation discount of 120 yuan / ton, but the market recognition is low and it is difficult to trade
.
Holders have no choice but to lower, the quotation has been expanded, good copper discount 100-80 yuan / ton, flat water copper discount about 140 yuan / ton, buying only to improve, some traders at a low price to receive flat water copper discount about 150 yuan / ton, good copper discount more than 100 yuan / ton, wet copper supply is still scarce, the quotation remains stable at about 200 yuan / ton
.
On the first trading day of July, although the spot tends to narrow the trend of discount, but the holders are too hasty, making the overall market supply and demand deadlock prominent, if the discount is slightly expanded, there is still a certain speculative attraction for some traders, especially the source of goods that can do warehouse receipts, the favor is still high
.

During the day, the Shanghai copper 1808 contract continued to fall to 51210 yuan / ton under pressure, and is currently effectively closed below the moving average group, while the risk of short-term decline in copper prices has increased because the Sino-US trade dispute has
not been resolved, and the market is worried about China's economic slowdown.
It is recommended that the Shanghai copper 1808 contract can be backed by 52,000 yuan below the sky, the entry reference is around 51,500 yuan, and the target is 50,800 yuan
.