Shanghai aluminum will still run strongly, and the price center of gravity will continue to move slowly upward

International market: The optimism of the easing of Sino-US trade relations is positive for the market, and the slight decline of London aluminum is relatively resistant, and the support below is focused on $
1700.
At 15:57 Beijing time, the LME 3-month aluminum was $1811.
5, down $1.
5/ton
from the previous session.

Spot market: the spot trading price of Yangtze River was 14370-14410 yuan / ton, down 170 yuan / ton; Guangdong South Reserve reported 14390-14490 yuan / ton, down 120 yuan / ton; Hua reported 14490-14510 yuan / ton, down 150 yuan / ton; The average domestic spot trading price is between
14380-14420 yuan / ton.
Aluminum has fallen sharply, holders are more willing to raise prices, downstream enterprises maintain on-demand procurement, and market transactions are general
.

Important news at home and abroad:

1.
The output of primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) in August was 2.
97 million tons, down 0.
3% year-on-year; From January to August, the output of primary aluminum was 23.
47 million tons, an increase of 1.
4%
year-on-year.

2.
China's scrap aluminum recycling rate is the highest in the world, and the gap is mainly in pretreatment
and smelting technology.

Cost side: Alumina prices continued to rise slightly last week, but the upward momentum weakened, and the average weekly price increase of the three networks was 11 yuan / ton
.
According to Aladdin's statistics, the national alumina operating capacity of 69.
55 million tons before the Mid-Autumn Festival, with an operating rate of 82.
14%, up from 80.
7% at the end of last month
.
But at the same time, it is worth noting that environmental protection in Henan and Shanxi is still continuing, hedging some of the pressure of
increased supply.
Therefore, it is generally expected that alumina prices will remain moderate under the intervention of environmental protection before the National Day
.
Pressure is greater
in anticipation of an increase in forward supply.

Supply and demand side: On the supply side, we maintain our previous judgment that it is unlikely that Weiqiao and Xinjiang Xinfa will unexpectedly stop production capacity in the short term, while the energy level of other resumed production is small, and there are environmental factors from the second half of September to the National Day, even if high profits are stimulated, it is expected that the progress of the remaining production capacity to be resumed will slow down
.
It is understood that the production capacity originally scheduled to be put into operation in September in Yunnan and Sichuan has been postponed, so the short-term supply side pressure is not large
.
Consumption: Entering the gold nine silver ten, terminal consumption has improved
slightly.
As of last Thursday, SMM's aluminum ingot inventory was 972,000 tons, down 34,000 tons week-on-week, and the decline expanded, and it is expected that the destocking will continue
in the short term.

In summary, it is expected that aluminum prices will remain strong this week, and the price center of gravity will continue to move
slowly upward.
In terms of operation, if you continue to hold more orders in the early stage, you need to pay attention to the impact of selling insurance funds under the high price of aluminum, and do a good job in profit protection
.