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As of Friday's afternoon close, the Shanghai aluminum main 2203 contract closed at 22670, down 570, or 2.
45%; Under the easing of inflationary pressure, market sentiment has declined, and short-term aluminum prices will continue the trend of shock correction, or there is still some downside
.
In terms of news, there has been a new crown epidemic in Guangxi Baise recently, and as of February 10, 186 people
have been confirmed in Bose.
At present, due to the epidemic, Debao County Huayin Aluminum has reduced its production by 1.
2 million tons/year of alumina and Guangxi Geely Bai Mine electrolytic aluminum plant has stopped production by 420,000 tons/year of electrolytic aluminum
.
Bose is an important producer of alumina electrolytic aluminum in China, and Antaike data shows that by the end of 2021, the total alumina production capacity in Bose City was 9.
55 million tons/year (accounting for 10.
5% of the country), and the electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 2.
195 million tons/year (accounting for 5.
2% of the country).
If the epidemic situation in Bose continues to be tense, it may continue to affect the production and transportation
of alumina and electrolytic aluminum.
In terms of fundamentals, the impact of the current Bose epidemic continues to ferment, and the local electrolytic aluminum production capacity may be affected, coupled with the continuous reduction in production in Europe, the global electrolytic aluminum supply continues to be tight
.
After the Spring Festival, downstream processing enterprises began to resume production one after another, and due to the impact of the epidemic, the speed of resumption of production may be faster
.
The price of alumina and pre-baked anode at the cost end rose, the price of thermal coal remained strong, the cost line of electrolytic aluminum continued to move up, and the long-term allocation
was maintained.
In terms of inventory, the accumulation of domestic Spring Festival stocks was lower than expected, and overseas inventories fell to a historical low
.
As of February 10, the national electrolytic aluminum spot inventory was 950,000 tons, and 140,000 tons were accumulated during the Spring Festival, which was significantly lower than the data of the same period of previous years
.
Overseas, LME aluminum stocks have fallen to 880,000 tons, a historic low
.
