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This week's Shanghai aluminum main month 1607 contract first rose and then declined, opened at 11283 yuan, touched a maximum of 13035 yuan on Monday after the market fell back, fell sharply on Thursday afternoon, touched the lowest 12430 yuan, picked up on Friday, narrowed the decline, and finally closed at 12680 yuan, down 0.
63%.
In the external market, the LME March LME aluminum volatility rose this week, maintaining an upward trend but narrowing the gains, consolidating slightly in the first half of the week to hit a minimum of $1625.
5 on Wednesday, and rebounding on Thursday afternoon, up 0.
99%
during the week.
On the macro front, the Fed left interest rates unchanged this week as expected and withdrew its phrase "global conditions pose a risk to U.
S.
outlook," but U.
S.
data was mixed, with market expectations for a June rate hike divergent
.
Domestically, this week announced that the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size from January to March increased by 7.
4% year-on-year, from the breakdown data, there are still many problems, first of all, new profits are concentrated in a few industries, and non-main activities such as investment income and non-operating net income have a significant impact on increasing profits, and are not stable and sustainable
.
Therefore, it is still too early to discuss the recovery of domestic industry, and the market's concerns about future demand expectations have not been alleviated
.
In terms of market, from the perspective of global supply and demand, the relative deviation of overseas electrolytic aluminum demand, demand and premium have declined, which will inhibit the performance of LME aluminum prices; At the same time, the Shanghai-London ratio is at a high level since 2014, and the entry of arbitrage funds has also had a certain impact
on domestic aluminum prices.
At present, the main force of Shanghai aluminum is blocked at the "10,000 three" threshold, but the short-term moving average support is still strong, the Lun aluminum weekly line stands on the 60-day moving average, short-term optimism still exists, but the rapid rise or the upward momentum can be weakened, and the short-term adjustment or maintain a more volatile trend
.
