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Yesterday, the main force of Shanghai aluminum opened at 12125 yuan / ton
.
During the day, bears closed their positions to avoid safety, bulls actively entered, Shanghai aluminum showed a wide range of oscillations upward trend, the center of gravity steadily moved upward, the position fluctuated greatly, and finally closed at 12205 yuan / ton
.
The night session opened at 12180 yuan / ton, after the opening of the bulls entered the short position to withdraw again, the price quickly pulled up to around 12250 yuan / ton, then the price fluctuated slightly upward, the end of the day touched as high as 12340 yuan / ton after pullback, and finally closed at 12295 yuan / ton
.
Shanghai aluminum recorded three consecutive Yang, and the price increased by more than 500 yuan / ton
compared with after the holiday.
On the macro front, the PBOC issued a monetary policy outlook, indicating that it will remain loose and moderate in 2016, pre-adjust and fine-tune in a timely manner, enhance pertinence and flexibility, and create a neutral and moderate monetary and financial environment
for structural reform.
Abroad, the German think tank ZEW expects a 44% probability of Brexit, and the UK's local IG/Survation poll shows that 45% support Brexit, 1 percentage point ahead of Brexit supporters, and the two sides are evenly matched
.
In terms of the market, Shanghai aluminum ingots rose 150-160 yuan / ton for the month, and the social inventory was reduced again to less than 400,000 tons, coupled with the reasons for replacing business tax with VAT and semi-annual settlement, the supply of aluminum ingots with monthly tickets was tight, the holders were willing to sell, the circulation supply was tight, the willingness of downstream enterprises to receive goods was cold, and the overall transaction showed high prices suppressed
.
To sum up, the trend since the Shanghai aluminum festival has been strong, and the price led by the active liquidation of bears has risen steadily
.
However, spot transactions are scarce at the current price level, and downstream wait-and-see sentiment is widespread
.
In the long run, Shanghai aluminum terminal consumer demand will dominate the trend
of aluminum prices.
Operationally, it is recommended that investors wait and see, and it is not recommended to enter the market to chase long
.
