Shanghai aluminum weak operation Weak external demand will suppress the subsequent trend

In terms of the market, today's spot trading price of Yangtze River is 12820-12860 yuan / ton, down 140 yuan; Guangdong South Reserve reported 12860-12920 yuan / ton, down 240 yuan; Hua reported 12930-12950 yuan / ton, down 130 yuan
.
The number of shippers of holders has increased significantly, the intermediary is more active in receiving goods under the condition of price reduction, and the downstream receives goods on demand, and the overall transaction is
acceptable.

Industry News:

1.
On April 29, the launching ceremony of the alumina project of Guizhou Zunyi Industrial Development Co.
, Ltd.
of State Power Investment Group was held
.
In 2010, the alumina project officially landed in Wuchuan
.
From the full resumption of construction of the project in 2017, to the production of the tile factory in 2018, the trial production of Dazhuyuan in 2019, the ignition of the thermal power plant, and now the limestone output, the alumina plant was officially put into operation
.

2.
According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs on May 7, China exported 441,200 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in April, down 15% from 518,600 tons in March and 11%
from 500,000 tons in the same period last year.
From January to April, a total of 1.
629 million tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were exported, compared with 1.
94 million tons in the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 16%.

Fundamental changes: 1) The upward trend of alumina gradually stopped, the increase was basically in line with expectations, and the short-term is expected to continue the bottom operation; 2) The profits of the electrolytic aluminum industry continued to recover, and the momentum of enterprises to reduce production weakened; 3) The aluminum ingot import window is rarely opened intraday, and the arbitrage disk intervenes to suppress prices, especially the price of AL2007 and subsequent forward contracts; 4) In April, aluminum exports showed negative growth, and the negative impact of the epidemic on external demand was gradually reflected
.

Stimulated by the sharp rise in U.
S.
stocks and crude oil yesterday, the non-ferrous market was running strongly as a whole, but aluminum prices fell slightly, which may imply the dual factors
of long profit-taking and arbitrage suppression.
Electrolytic aluminum profit repair suppresses the willingness to reduce production, the negative impact of external demand gradually appears, the long-term fundamentals of aluminum are weak and unchanged, and the overall price
is suppressed.
In addition, under the continuous high value of the Shanghai-London ratio, the opening of the aluminum ingot import window has suppressed the far month price
.
The short-term pullback in the peak season may not be deep, and the bulls recommend closing their positions, and the short positions intervene
.