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Today's Shanghai aluminum 1611 contract fluctuated higher, closing up to 12145 yuan / ton, up 0.
66% from yesterday's closing price, the upper has not effectively broken through the average suppression, short-term downside risks remain.
At the same time, the term structure of the aluminum market maintained a negative arrangement of near high and far low, and the negative spread between Shanghai aluminum 1610 and 1611 contracts narrowed to 215 yuan / ton, indicating that the willingness of forward contracts to fall was significantly weakened
.
Externally: Asian Lun aluminum continued to fluctuate in a narrow range, trading is still very light, of which 3-month Lun aluminum rose slightly by 0.
22% to 1576 US dollars / ton, so that Lun aluminum barely ran around M60, but the short-term Lun aluminum RSI indicator fell to the oversold area, need to be wary of technical correction needs, lower support to focus on 1550 US dollars / ton, upper rebound resistance 1650 US dollars / ton
.
Macro: The Asian dollar index rushed higher and retreated, indicating that the upper selling pressure was heavier, and it is now trading around
95.
9.
The BOJ left interest rates unchanged at -0.
1%, indicating a climb in the BOJ's fears of negative interest rates, or suggesting further validation
of the global liquidity inflection point.
The September Fed interest rate meeting will be announced in the early hours of tomorrow morning, and the current rate hike expectations are weak
.
In terms of market: Shanghai aluminum trading concentration 12690-12720 yuan / ton, the monthly premium 340-350 yuan / ton, Wuxi transaction concentration 12690-12740 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction concentration 12670-12720 yuan / ton
。 On the eve of the National Day, the continuous supply of goods is tight, the East China market has become a seller's market, the quotations of holders are rising, the market bullish atmosphere is strong, the willingness of middlemen to receive goods is extremely strong, almost crazy, the market low-price source of goods is instantly robbed, downstream enterprises have the willingness to prepare goods in advance, but the fear of heights is slightly inferior, and the overall transaction is active among
traders in the seller's market.
Industry: According to data from the International Aluminum Association (IAI), global (excluding China) primary aluminum production in August was 2.
141 million tons, down 07,000 tons from the previous month, but China's primary aluminum production in August increased by 54,000 tons month-on-month, and the data showed that aluminum companies in other regions except China were more willing to reduce production in August than China
.
Today's Shanghai aluminum 1611 contract oscillation slightly rose to 12145 yuan / ton, in view of China's primary aluminum production in August re-climbed month-on-month, showing that the domestic aluminum market supply pressure is greater, while technically Shanghai aluminum bias space situation has not changed, it is recommended that Shanghai aluminum 1611 contract can be backed by 12200 yuan under cautious short, the target reference 11950 yuan / ton
.
